Probabilities & picks · 5 September 2026
59 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 35 of 59 settled picks correct (59.3%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Hull City – Aston Villa · X2 · 1.30
- Fenerbahce – Besiktas · 12 · 1.30
- FC Alverca – SC Braga · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 49.8%
✅ won
Medium
- Ajax – PSV Eindhoven · X2 · 1.50
- Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruna · 1 · Villarreal · 1.50
- TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund · X2 · 1.55
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 32.0%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta Braves · 2 · Atlanta Braves · 2.35
- Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers · 1 · Cincinnati Reds · 2.35
- NY Mets – San Francisco Giants · 2 · San Francisco Giants · 2.50
total odds: 13.81 · announced probability of winning: 6.4%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:05 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta Braves | 2 · Atlanta Braves | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:2 | |
| 00:10 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Detroit Tigers | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.60 | 59.0% | 62.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:6 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers | 1 · Cincinnati Reds | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:3 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – LA Angels | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.55 | 61.7% | 65.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:6 |
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Jovic – Eala | 1 · Jovic | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Osaka – Mertens | 1 · Osaka | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Boston Red Sox | 2 · Boston Red Sox | 1.65 | 57.1% | 61.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:5 |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Tampa Bay Rays | 2 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:6 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Minnesota Twins | 2 · Minnesota Twins | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:6 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Toronto Blue Jays | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:4 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · Houston Astros | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:4 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – NY Yankees | 2 · NY Yankees | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:5 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Inter Miami – Atlanta United | 1 · Inter Miami | 1.30 | 72.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Colorado Rockies | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 10:7 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Mensik – Tien | 1 · Mensik | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Zverev – Tabilo | 2 · Tabilo | 5.20 | 18.2% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 3-0 | |
| 03:10 | ⚾ MLB | LA Dodgers – Washington Nationals | 1 · LA Dodgers | 1.45 | 65.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:5 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.37 | 69.4% | 73.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:6 |
| 13:30 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Newcastle – Bournemouth | 1X | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | 1. FC Slovacko – FK Pardubice | X2 | 1.55 | 60.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Fiorentina – Torino | 12 | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Bayer Leverkusen – Union Berlin | 1 · Bayer Leverkusen | 1.40 | 65.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:0 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | M'gladbach – Elversberg | 1 · M'gladbach | 1.85 | 49.9% | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:4 |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | SC Paderborn – SC Freiburg | 2 · SC Freiburg | 1.90 | 48.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund | X2 | 1.55 | 64.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig | 1 · Werder Bremen | 3.80 | 24.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Brentford – Sunderland | 1 · Brentford | 1.70 | 54.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Brighton – Leeds | 12 | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Fulham – Crystal Palace | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | 74.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Manchester City – Coventry | X2 | 4.70 | 20.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Nottingham Forest – Tottenham | 1X | 1.40 | 66.4% | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Athletic Bilbao – Atletico Madrid | 12 | 1.35 | 70.5% | 74.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 |
| 17:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Keys – Zheng Q. | 1 · Keys | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 17:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Potapova – Anisimova | 1 · Potapova | 5.20 | 18.2% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Lens – FC Lorient | 1 · Lens | 1.50 | 62.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 | |
| 17:30 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Fritz – F. Cerundolo | 2 · F. Cerundolo | 6.40 | 14.9% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Gorica | X · draw | 8.00 | 11.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Inter – Napoli | 1 · Inter | 1.65 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 18:10 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Blockx – Cobolli | 2 · Cobolli | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 3-1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Hull City – Aston Villa | 2 · Aston Villa | 2.00 | 50.5% | 61.4% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Rayo Vallecano – Racing Santander | 12 | 1.33 | 71.3% | 77.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Schalke 04 – Bayern Munchen | 1 · Schalke 04 | 13.00 | 7.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Alverca – SC Braga | 12 | 1.30 | 72.7% | 78.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Fenerbahce – Besiktas | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 19:20 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Khachanov – Bonzi | 1 · Khachanov | 1.50 | 63.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Ajax – PSV Eindhoven | X2 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 70.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:3 |
| 20:15 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Motor Lublin – Legia Warszawa | X2 | 1.30 | 72.5% | 67.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | AS Roma – Atalanta | 12 | 1.35 | 74.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Le Havre – Brest | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Nice – Le Mans | 2 · Le Mans | 4.10 | 22.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Standard Liege – Royal Antwerpen | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | HNK Rijeka – NK Osijek | 12 | 1.35 | 74.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Skotska Premiership | St. Mirren – Celtic | 2 · Celtic | 1.40 | 65.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruna | 1 · Villarreal | 1.50 | 63.4% | 67.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:3 |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia Mendoza – Boca Juniors | 12 | 1.33 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Miami Marlins | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:6 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – San Francisco Giants | 1 · NY Mets | 1.55 | 61.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:9 | |
| 22:30 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Bergs – Van de Zandschulp | 2 · Van de Zandschulp | 1.42 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Brazil Brasileirao | Sao Paulo – Atletico Mineiro | 12 | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open, ATP | Fritz – F. Cerundolo | 1 | 1.12 | 85.1% |
| Engleska Premier League | Manchester City – Coventry | 1 | 1.15 | 81.6% |
| Njemacka Bundesliga | Schalke 04 – Bayern Munchen | 2 | 1.15 | 81.4% |
| Hrvatska SHNL | Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Gorica | 1 | 1.15 | 82.3% |
| US Open, ATP | Zverev – Tabilo | 1 | 1.16 | 81.8% |
| US Open, WTA | Potapova – Anisimova | 2 | 1.16 | 81.8% |