Probabilities & picks · 6 September 2026
55 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 32 of 55 settled picks correct (58.2%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Arsenal – Chelsea · 12 · 1.35
- Bologna – Sassuolo · 12 · 1.30
- Troyes – Strasbourg · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 46.0%
❌ lost
Medium
- Seattle Mariners – Oakland Athletics · 1 · Seattle Mariners · 1.50
- Kocaelispor – Samsunspor · X2 · 1.60
- Malaga – Levante · X2 · 1.55
total odds: 3.72 · announced probability of winning: 26.7%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Pittsburgh Pirates – LA Angels · 2 · LA Angels · 2.60
- LA Dodgers – Washington Nationals · 2 · Washington Nationals · 2.65
- NY Mets – San Francisco Giants · 2 · San Francisco Giants · 2.30
total odds: 15.85 · announced probability of winning: 5.9%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:20 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Minnesota Twins | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 10:1 | |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil Brasileirao | Corinthians – Chapecoense | 1 · Corinthians | 1.40 | 65.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Shelton – Tsitsipas | 1 · Shelton | 1.40 | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 02:40 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Kalinskaya – Navarro | 2 · Navarro | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | LA Dodgers – Washington Nationals | 1 · LA Dodgers | 1.50 | 63.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7:5 | |
| 12:15 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | FC Groningen – Twente | X2 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 | |
| 13:30 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Cercle Brugge – KAA Gent | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar | 1 · Heerenveen | 3.50 | 26.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:3 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Everton – Manchester Utd | X2 | 1.30 | 72.5% | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Frosinone – Venezia | 1X | 1.45 | 64.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Parma – AC Monza | 12 | 1.35 | 69.1% | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Troyes – Strasbourg | X2 | 1.40 | 67.1% | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:6 |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Hamburger SV – Mainz 05 | 1X | 1.55 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:5 | |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Valencia – FC Barcelona | 2 · FC Barcelona | 1.30 | 77.0% | 68.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:5 |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Santa Clara – Rio Ave | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:0 |
| 16:45 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | ADO Den Haag – Fortuna Sittard | X2 | 1.75 | 53.4% | 61.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Angers – Rennes | 1 · Angers | 3.70 | 25.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Arsenal – Chelsea | 1 · Arsenal | 1.75 | 57.3% | 65.5% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Augsburg | 2 · FC Augsburg | 3.50 | 26.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:4 | |
| 17:30 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Sabalenka – Townsend | 2 · Townsend | 5.20 | 18.2% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 2-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Bologna – Sassuolo | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | 75.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | NK Rudes – Hajduk Split | 2 · Hajduk Split | 1.35 | 74.5% | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:4 |
| 18:10 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers | 2 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 12:8 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Anderlecht – KRC Genk | 1X | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Deportivo Alaves – CA Osasuna | 12 | 1.40 | 68.3% | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5:2 |
| 18:30 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Kostyuk – Noskova | 1 · Kostyuk | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Malaga – Levante | 12 | 1.35 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga | OFI Kreta – AE Kifisia | 12 | 1.30 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | Crvena zvezda – Partizan | 1 · Crvena zvezda | 1.30 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Kocaelispor – Samsunspor | X2 | 1.60 | 58.5% | 64.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Trabzonspor – Genclerbirligi | 1 · Trabzonspor | 1.45 | 63.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Vitoria Guimaraes – Casa Pia | 1 · Vitoria Guimaraes | 1.45 | 64.8% | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta Braves | 2 · Atlanta Braves | 1.90 | 50.0% | 53.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:5 |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Boston Red Sox | 2 · Boston Red Sox | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – LA Angels | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.50 | 63.4% | 58.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Detroit Tigers | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Chicago Cubs | 2 · Chicago Cubs | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 10:3 | |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – San Francisco Giants | 2 · San Francisco Giants | 2.30 | 41.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:2 | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central – Newell's Old Boys | X2 | 2.15 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 20:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Paul – Alcaraz | 1 · Paul | 5.00 | 19.1% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 0-3 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Toronto Blue Jays | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:1 | |
| 20:30 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Michelsen – Etcheverry | 1 · Michelsen | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga | Panathinaikos – PAOK | X2 | 1.65 | 55.6% | 59.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:1 |
| 20:35 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Tampa Bay Rays | 2 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 8:6 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Juventus – AC Milan | 12 | 1.40 | 71.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Olympique Marseille – Paris FC | 1 · Olympique Marseille | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:3 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Espanyol – Sevilla | 12 | 1.35 | 70.0% | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 21:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Medvedev – Tiafoe | 1 · Medvedev | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 0-3 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | Slaven Belupo – Lokomotiva Zagreb | 12 | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – St. Louis Cardinals | 2 · St. Louis Cardinals | 1.75 | 54.5% | 58.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:10 |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – NY Yankees | 2 · NY Yankees | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:3 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.50 | 63.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 22:40 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Pegula – Cirstea | 1 · Pegula | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Brazil Brasileirao | Botafogo – Palmeiras | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open, WTA | Sabalenka – Townsend | 1 | 1.16 | 81.8% |
| US Open, ATP | Paul – Alcaraz | 2 | 1.18 | 80.9% |