Probabilities & picks · 28 September 2026
27 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 18 of 25 settled picks correct (72.0%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Belgija – Francuska · X2 · 1.35
- Svedska – Poljska · 12 · 1.30
- Turska – Italija · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.37 · announced probability of winning: 40.6%
✅ won
Medium
- Armenija – Crna Gora · 1X · 1.50
- Sjeverna Irska – Madarska · under 2.5 · 1.50
- Latvija – Cipar · under 2.5 · 1.53
total odds: 3.44 · announced probability of winning: 23.9%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Rumunjska – BiH · 1 · Rumunjska · 2.40
- Sveti Kristofor I Nevis – Grenada · under 2.5 · 2.35
- America MG – Juventude RS · over 2.5 · 2.20
total odds: 12.41 · announced probability of winning: 7.2%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Libertad Asuncion – Olimpia Asuncion | X2 | 1.47 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Surinam – Martinik | 12 | 1.23 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO SERIE B | America MG – Juventude RS | X2 | 1.22 | 75.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Montevideo Wanderers – Albion FC | 12 | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Jamajka – Honduras | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveta Lucija – Bermuda | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-2 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveti Kristofor I Nevis – Grenada | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvatemala – Salvador | 1X | 1.28 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Munar Jaume – Kovacevic Aleksandar | 1 · Munar Jaume | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 12:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K ADANA | Jeanjean Leolia – Lamens Suzan | 1 · Jeanjean Leolia | 1.60 | 57.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 12:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K ADANA | Noha Akugue Noma – Crawley Fiona | 1 · Noha Akugue Noma | 2.30 | 40.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP CHENGDU | Hurkacz Hubert – Shapovalov Denis | 1 · Hurkacz Hubert | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 13:30 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Medvedev Daniil – Safiullin Roman | 1 · Medvedev Daniil | 1.42 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 13:40 | 🎾 WTA 125K ADANA | Efremova Ksenia – Kubka Martyna | 2 · Kubka Martyna | 1.47 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 13:40 | 🎾 WTA 125K ADANA | Hruncakova Viktoria – Gasanova Anastasija | 2 · Gasanova Anastasija | 1.33 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Armenija – Crna Gora | 12 | 1.35 | 69.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Gruzija – Ukrajina | 12 | 1.35 | 69.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Latvija – Cipar | 12 | 1.35 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA B | CSD Flandria – Dock Sud | 1X | 1.26 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Belgija – Francuska | X2 | 1.35 | 74.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Rumunjska – BiH | 12 | 1.40 | 70.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-4 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Sjeverna Irska – Madarska | 12 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Svedska – Poljska | 12 | 1.30 | 73.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Turska – Italija | X2 | 1.55 | 64.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-4 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvadalupa – Barbados | 1X | 1.35 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Sportivo San Lorenzo – CD Recoleta | 12 | 1.27 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kuba – Bonaire | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kuba – Bonaire | 1 | 1.13 | 82.8% |