Probabilities & picks · 27 September 2026
50 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 37 of 46 settled picks correct (80.4%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals · 1 · Milwaukee Brewers · 1.45
- Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies · 1 · Chicago White Sox · 1.47
- Norveska – Portugal · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.88 · announced probability of winning: 37.3%
✅ won
Medium
- Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels · 1 · Seattle Mariners · 1.55
- Srbija – Nizozemska · 2 · Nizozemska · 1.50
- Austrija – Kosovo · 1 · Austrija · 1.60
total odds: 3.72 · announced probability of winning: 25.8%
✅ won
Riskier
- Toronto Blue Jays – Cincinnati Reds · 2 · Cincinnati Reds · 2.45
- Detroit Tigers – Pittsburgh Pirates · 1 · Detroit Tigers · 2.10
- San Diego Padres – Arizona Diamondbacks · 1 · San Diego Padres · 2.10
total odds: 10.80 · announced probability of winning: 8.8%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:05 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Fortaleza FC – CD Tolima | X2 | 1.30 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Curacao – Nikaragva | 1 · Curacao | 1.40 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-1 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Dominika – Portoriko | X2 | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 02:20 | 🏈 NFL | Denver Broncos – Los Angeles Rams | 1 · Denver Broncos | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 30-26 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Club Leon – FC Juarez | 12 | 1.20 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Trinidad I Tobago – Dominikanska Republika | 12 | 1.27 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 03:10 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | AD Cali – Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 1.26 | 72.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 05:10 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Necaxa – CF America | 12 | 1.28 | 73.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-4 | |
| 11:40 | 🎾 ATP CHENGDU | Harris Lloyd – Hurkacz Hubert | 2 · Hurkacz Hubert | 1.50 | 62.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 11:40 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Safiullin Roman – Bu Yunchaokete | 1 · Safiullin Roman | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 13:30 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Medvedev Daniil – Wong Chak Lam Coleman | 1 · Medvedev Daniil | 1.21 | 78.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 14:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K ANKARA | Cengiz Berfu – Kostovic Teodora | 2 · Kostovic Teodora | 1.33 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Litva – Azerbajdzan | 1X | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Austrija – Kosovo | 12 | 1.25 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Danska – Wales | 12 | 1.20 | 79.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Gibraltar – Andora | X2 | 1.28 | 73.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Srbija – Nizozemska | 2 · Nizozemska | 1.50 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Buffalo Bills – Los Angeles Chargers | 1 · Buffalo Bills | 1.30 | 73.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 24-16 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Cleveland Browns – Carolina Panthers | 1 · Cleveland Browns | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 21-18 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Detroit Lions – NY Jets | 1 · Detroit Lions | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 31-24 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Indianapolis Colts – Houston Texans | 1 · Indianapolis Colts | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 19-17 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars – New England Patriots | 1 · Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 35-6 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | NY Giants – Tennessee Titans | 1 · NY Giants | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 12-7 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Pittsburgh Steelers – Cincinnati Bengals | 2 · Cincinnati Bengals | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 30-27 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Washington Commanders – Seattle Seahawks | 2 · Seattle Seahawks | 1.22 | 77.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 33-31 | |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Baltimore Orioles | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – NY Mets | 1 · Washington Nationals | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-4 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Pumas UNAM – Atletico San Luis | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Njemacka – Grcka | 12 | 1.25 | 79.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Norveska – Portugal | 12 | 1.35 | 74.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-6 | |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros | 1 · Oakland Athletics | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-9 | |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7-3 | |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-5 | |
| 21:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Cincinnati Reds | 2 · Cincinnati Reds | 2.45 | 38.8% | 42.7% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5-1 |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.47 | 64.7% | 69.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-2 |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-4 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Miami Marlins | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-3 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.45 | 66.3% | 71.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-4 |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – Texas Rangers | 1 · Minnesota Twins | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-4 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · San Diego Padres | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 9-4 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.55 | 61.7% | 65.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7-3 |
| 22:05 | 🏈 NFL | San Francisco 49ers – Arizona Cardinals | 1 · San Francisco 49ers | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 36-30 | |
| 22:05 | 🏈 NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Minnesota Vikings | 1 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 16-23 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Dallas Cowboys – Baltimore Ravens | 2 · Baltimore Ravens | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 31-34 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | New Orleans Saints – Las Vegas Raiders | 1 · New Orleans Saints | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 27-35 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Jaguares De Cordoba – Alianza FC Valledupar | 1X | 1.30 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Miami Dolphins – Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 1.16 | 82.3% |
| ATP HANGZHOU | Medvedev Daniil – Wong Chak Lam Coleman | 1 | 1.21 | 78.8% |
| NFL | Washington Commanders – Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 1.22 | 77.9% |
| NFL | San Francisco 49ers – Arizona Cardinals | 1 | 1.27 | 75.0% |