Probabilities & picks · 30 September 2026
32 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 14 of 23 settled picks correct (60.9%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Atletico Nacional Medellin – CD Junior FC · 12 · 1.30
- Bahrein – Jemen · 12 · 1.33
- Argentina – Bolivija · over 2.5 · 1.30
total odds: 2.25 · announced probability of winning: 41.0%
✅ won
Medium
- Linette Magda – Siniakova Katerina · 2 · Siniakova Katerina · 1.50
- Maccabi Tel Aviv – Besiktas JK · 1 · Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1.65
- Houston Astros – Chicago White Sox · 1 · Houston Astros · 1.65
total odds: 4.08 · announced probability of winning: 22.4%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies · 1 · Atlanta Braves · 2.00
- Sejseli – Sri Lanka · over 2.5 · 2.20
- Montevideo City Torque – Penarol Montevideo · over 2.5 · 2.05
total odds: 9.02 · announced probability of winning: 9.5%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Montevideo City Torque – Penarol Montevideo | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | NY Red Bulls – Saint Louis City | X2 | 1.30 | 72.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Philadelphia Flyers – Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 · Philadelphia Flyers | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-7 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Toronto Maple Leafs – New York Islanders | 1 · Toronto Maple Leafs | 1.75 | 53.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Argentina – Bolivija | over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Boston Red Sox | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 9-2 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Atletico Nacional Medellin – CD Junior FC | 12 | 1.30 | 77.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Bublik Alexander – Mensik Jakub | 2 · Mensik Jakub | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Colorado Avalanche – Los Angeles Kings | 1 · Colorado Avalanche | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 8-4 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Darderi Luciano – Ruud Casper | 2 · Ruud Casper | 1.42 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-0 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Fritz Taylor – Munar Jaume | 1 · Fritz Taylor | 1.26 | 75.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Griekspoor Tallon – Rublev Andrey | 2 · Rublev Andrey | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Linette Magda – Siniakova Katerina | 2 · Siniakova Katerina | 1.50 | 63.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Medvedev Daniil – Carreno-Busta Pablo | 1 · Medvedev Daniil | 1.23 | 77.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Chicago Cubs | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-1 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Tien Learner – Hurkacz Hubert | 1 · Tien Learner | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:10 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Rune Holger – Jacquet Kyrian | 1 · Rune Holger | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Borges Nuno – Dokovic Novak | 2 · Dokovic Novak | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 14:15 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Bondar Anna – Zarazua Renata | 1 · Bondar Anna | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Sejseli – Sri Lanka | X2 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFRICKI KUP NACIJA, KVALIFIKACIJE | Eritreja – JAR | 2 · JAR | 1.25 | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-5 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Litva – Andora | 12 | 1.28 | 74.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | Bahrein – Jemen | 12 | 1.33 | 70.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-5 |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | UAE – Katar | 1X | 1.20 | 82.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 20:00 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-4 |
| 20:05 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Maccabi Tel Aviv – Besiktas JK | 1 · Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1.65 | 61.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 93-109 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Gvatemala - PRIMERA DIVISION | Deportivo Coatepeque – Quiche FC | 12 | 1.27 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Peru - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | CS Cienciano – Los Chankas CYC | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 23:00 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Houston Astros | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-7 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Argentina – Bolivija | 1 | 1.05 | 89.0% |
| WTA PEKING | Zheng Qinwen – Shi Han | 1 | 1.09 | 87.5% |
| ATP PEKING | Zverev Alexander – Norrie Cameron | 1 | 1.10 | 87.1% |
| EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne | 1 | 1.12 | 85.2% |
| ATP PEKING | Medvedev Daniil – Carreno-Busta Pablo | 1 | 1.23 | 77.3% |
| Reprezentacije - AFRICKI KUP NACIJA, KVALIFIKACIJE | Eritreja – JAR | 2 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| ATP TOKYO | Fritz Taylor – Munar Jaume | 1 | 1.26 | 75.6% |