Probabilities & picks · 1 October 2026
54 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 30 of 44 settled picks correct (68.2%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Danska – Portugal · X2 · 1.35
- Grcka – Nizozemska · 12 · 1.35
- Izrael – Kosovo · 12 · 1.33
total odds: 2.42 · announced probability of winning: 39.3%
❌ lost
Medium
- Paris Basketball – Zalgiris Kaunas · X2 · 1.50
- Crvena Zvezda Beograd – Anadolu Efes · 1X · 1.55
- Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City · 1 · Seattle Sounders · 1.50
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 25.7%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Hapoel Tel Aviv – Real Madrid · 1X · 2.00
- Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies · 1 · Atlanta Braves · 2.00
- Irska – Austrija · 2 · Austrija · 2.15
total odds: 8.60 · announced probability of winning: 10.3%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Curacao – Trinidad I Tobago | 12 | 1.21 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Columbus Blue Jackets – Buffalo Sabres | 1 · Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-3 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | NY Rangers – Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 · NY Rangers | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-1 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | New Jersey Devils – Philadelphia Flyers | 1 · New Jersey Devils | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Athletic Club MG – Recife PE | 12 | 1.32 | 69.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-2 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | CD Inca – Municipal Limeno | X2 | 1.23 | 75.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Dominikanska Republika – Haiti | 12 | 1.24 | 73.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-4 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Gremio Novorizontino SP – Goias EC GO | 12 | 1.23 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kajmanski Otoci – Portoriko | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Nashville Predators – Minnesota Wild | 1 · Nashville Predators | 2.15 | 43.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-3 |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | Cleveland Browns – Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 · Cleveland Browns | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 27-24 |
| 03:00 | 🏒 NHL | Calgary Flames – Seattle Kraken | 1 · Calgary Flames | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-6 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Internacional De Bogota – CD Once Caldas | 12 | 1.35 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 03:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 03:30 | 🏒 NHL | Utah Mammoth – Chicago Blackhawks | 1 · Utah Mammoth | 1.45 | 64.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Humbert Ugo – Lehecka Jiri | 2 · Lehecka Jiri | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Munar Jaume – Faria Jaime | 1 · Munar Jaume | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Nikaragva – Kostarika | 2 · Kostarika | 1.50 | 61.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | San Jose Sharks – Florida Panthers | 1 · San Jose Sharks | 2.15 | 43.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-3 |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Vancouver Canucks – Edmonton Oilers | 2 · Edmonton Oilers | 1.45 | 64.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 7-9 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | De Minaur Alex – Halys Quentin | 1 · De Minaur Alex | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Golubic Viktorija – Stearns Peyton | 2 · Stearns Peyton | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 2-1 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Molcan Alex – Khachanov Karen | 2 · Khachanov Karen | 1.23 | 77.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Ostapenko Jelena – Badosa Paula | 2 · Badosa Paula | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Paolini Jasmine – Snigur Daria | 1 · Paolini Jasmine | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Siniakova Katerina – Svitolina Elina | 2 · Svitolina Elina | 1.28 | 74.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Zheng Qinwen – Kalinskaya Anna | 1 · Zheng Qinwen | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:10 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Vacherot Valentin – Tsitsipas Stefanos | 1 · Vacherot Valentin | 2.30 | 41.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 12:10 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Japan – Ekvador | 12 | 1.20 | 78.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 13:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Lys Eva – Sun Xinran | 1 · Lys Eva | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Tien Learner – Hurkacz Hubert | 1 · Tien Learner | 1.65 | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 14:30 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Bublik Alexander – Mensik Jakub | 2 · Mensik Jakub | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Indonezija – Banglades | over 2.5 | 1.27 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Malezija – Singapur | 1 · Malezija | 1.40 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Maldivi – Libanon | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Uzbekistan – Sirija | 1 · Uzbekistan | 1.40 | 66.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-1 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Azerbajdzan – Lihtenstajn | over 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFRICKI KUP NACIJA, KVALIFIKACIJE | Gvineja – Kenija | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Hapoel Tel Aviv – Real Madrid | 1X | 2.00 | 48.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 102-98 |
| 20:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Crvena Zvezda Beograd – Anadolu Efes | 1X | 1.55 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 77-72 |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Virtus Bologna – Olympiacos Piraeus | X2 | 1.22 | 79.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 96-94 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Danska – Portugal | X2 | 1.35 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-4 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Grcka – Nizozemska | 12 | 1.35 | 73.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Irska – Austrija | 12 | 1.35 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Izrael – Kosovo | 12 | 1.33 | 71.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Malta – Gibraltar | 1 · Malta | 1.30 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Njemacka – Srbija | 1 · Njemacka | 1.25 | 80.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 20:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Paris Basketball – Zalgiris Kaunas | X2 | 1.50 | 64.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 82-78 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Wales – Norveska | 12 | 1.20 | 79.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Brit. Djevicanski Otoci – Montserrat | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Americki Djevicanski Otoci – Sveti Martin | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Dominika – Gvajana | 2 · Gvajana | 1.23 | 74.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-5 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Indonezija – Banglades | 1 | 1.03 | 90.9% |
| Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Maldivi – Libanon | 2 | 1.05 | 88.3% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kajmanski Otoci – Portoriko | 2 | 1.07 | 85.4% |
| WTA PEKING | Muchova Karolina – Boulter Katie | 1 | 1.12 | 85.1% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Azerbajdzan – Lihtenstajn | 1 | 1.13 | 82.1% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Brit. Djevicanski Otoci – Montserrat | 2 | 1.13 | 79.9% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Dominika – Gvajana | 2 | 1.23 | 74.5% |
| ATP PEKING | Molcan Alex – Khachanov Karen | 2 | 1.23 | 77.3% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Njemacka – Srbija | 1 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Americki Djevicanski Otoci – Sveti Martin | 2 | 1.25 | 73.2% |
| ATP PEKING | De Minaur Alex – Halys Quentin | 1 | 1.27 | 75.0% |
| EUROLIGA | Virtus Bologna – Olympiacos Piraeus | 2 | 1.28 | 73.6% |
| WTA PEKING | Siniakova Katerina – Svitolina Elina | 2 | 1.28 | 74.3% |