Probabilities & picks · 5 October 2026
42 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 30 of 38 settled picks correct (78.9%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Independiente Medellin – Independiente Santa Fe · 12 · 1.30
- Indonezija – Tajland · 12 · 1.30
- BiH – Poljska · 12 · 1.40
total odds: 2.37 · announced probability of winning: 38.5%
❌ lost
Medium
- Francuska – Belgija · 1 · Francuska · 1.55
- Crna Gora – Armenija · 1 · Crna Gora · 1.50
- Sjeverna Irska – Gruzija · X2 · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 24.8%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Dokovic Novak – Medvedev Daniil · 1 · Dokovic Novak · 2.35
- Tampa Bay Rays – NY Yankees · 1 · Tampa Bay Rays · 2.10
- Rumunjska – Svedska · under 2.5 · 2.35
total odds: 11.60 · announced probability of winning: 7.8%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Estudiantes De La Plata – Gimnasia Esgrima Mendoza | 12 | 1.25 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Martinik – Salvador | 1X | 1.42 | 64.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Velez Sarsfield – Platense | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 00:05 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Chapelton Maroons – Waterhouse | 12 | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-6 |
| 00:15 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Cerro Porteno – CS 2 De Mayo | 12 | 1.21 | 76.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Nacional Montevideo – Montevideo City Torque | 12 | 1.26 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Tampa Bay Lightning – Philadelphia Flyers | 1 · Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.47 | 63.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-1 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Boston Bruins – Ottawa Senators | 2 · Ottawa Senators | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-4 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Pittsburgh Penguins – Winnipeg Jets | 1 · Pittsburgh Penguins | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Bermuda – Barbados | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Dallas Stars – San Jose Sharks | 1 · Dallas Stars | 1.55 | 59.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-0 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Grenada – Bonaire | 1 · Grenada | 1.45 | 62.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-4 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvatemala – Surinam | 12 | 1.28 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Independiente Medellin – Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – NY Yankees | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-2 |
| 02:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Banfield – Rosario Central | X2 | 1.22 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | New Orleans Saints – Atlanta Falcons | 1 · New Orleans Saints | 1.75 | 53.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 24-45 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Arnett Gardens – Portmore Utd | X2 | 1.33 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Honduras – Jamajka | 1X | 1.27 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Jovic Iva – Swiatek Iga | 2 · Swiatek Iga | 1.40 | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Dokovic Novak – Medvedev Daniil | 1 · Dokovic Novak | 2.35 | 42.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 13:30 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Niroye Zamini Tehran – Sanat Mes Kerman | under 2.5 | 1.35 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Besat Kermanshah – Palayesh Naft | under 2.5 | 1.43 | 65.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Indonezija – Tajland | 12 | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Mes Rafsanjan – Ario Eslamshahr | under 2.5 | 1.42 | 65.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Cipar – Latvija | 12 | 1.25 | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA 2 | Cordoba CF – Tenerife CD | 1X | 1.25 | 75.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | BiH – Poljska | 12 | 1.40 | 71.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Crna Gora – Armenija | 12 | 1.23 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Francuska – Belgija | 1 · Francuska | 1.55 | 64.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Italija – Turska | 1 · Italija | 1.45 | 68.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Rumunjska – Svedska | 12 | 1.28 | 74.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Sjeverna Irska – Gruzija | X2 | 1.55 | 61.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Ukrajina – Madarska | 12 | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvadalupa – Sveta Lucija | X2 | 1.28 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 21:45 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Deportivo Riestra – Central Cordoba | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Nueva Chicago – CD Maipu | under 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Sportivo Trinidense – Sportivo Luqueno | 1X | 1.22 | 75.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 23:00 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-4 |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kuba – Sveti Kristofor I Nevis | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA PEKING | Gauff Coco – Sun Xinran | 1 | 1.03 | 92.7% |
| WTA PEKING | Snigur Daria – Andreeva Mirra | 2 | 1.15 | 83.0% |