Probabilities & picks · 4 October 2026
85 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 55 of 79 settled picks correct (69.6%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Grcka – Njemacka · 12 · 1.35
- Wales – Danska · 12 · 1.35
- Bejlek Sara – Osaka Naomi · 2 · Osaka Naomi · 1.30
total odds: 2.37 · announced probability of winning: 40.6%
❌ lost
Medium
- Chicago Bears – NY Jets · 1 · Chicago Bears · 1.50
- Azerbajdzan – Litva · under 2.5 · 1.50
- CA Huracan – CA Aldosivi · under 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 26.6%
✅ won
Riskier
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Green Bay Packers · 1 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2.40
- Philadelphia Eagles – Los Angeles Rams · 1 · Philadelphia Eagles · 2.50
- Milwaukee Brewers – San Diego Padres · 2 · San Diego Padres · 2.20
total odds: 13.20 · announced probability of winning: 8.3%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Molynes – Racing Utd | X2 | 1.42 | 64.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-6 | |
| 00:00 | 🏒 NHL | NY Rangers – Utah Mammoth | 1 · NY Rangers | 1.75 | 53.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-2 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Portoriko – Kajmanski Otoci | over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Trinidad I Tobago – Curacao | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 00:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Argentinos Juniors – CA Tigre | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Racing Montevideo – Penarol Montevideo | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Gvatemala - LIGA NACIONAL, APERTURA | Guastatoya – Aurora FC | 1 · Guastatoya | 1.45 | 62.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | Inter Santa Tecla – CD Fuerte San Francisco Morazan | over 2.5 | 1.84 | 50.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:10 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CA Bucaramanga – CD Junior FC | 12 | 1.28 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Anaheim Ducks – Florida Panthers | 1 · Anaheim Ducks | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kostarika – Haiti | 1X | 1.35 | 68.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.65 | 58.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Seattle Kraken – Calgary Flames | 1 · Seattle Kraken | 1.65 | 56.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-1 | |
| 02:20 | 🏈 NFL | Carolina Panthers – Detroit Lions | 2 · Detroit Lions | 1.50 | 63.9% | 58.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 32-26 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Estudiantes RC – RC Avellaneda | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Mount Pleasant – Cavaliers FC | 1X | 1.23 | 74.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Gvatemala - LIGA NACIONAL, APERTURA | Comunicaciones FC – CD Suchitepequez | 1 · Comunicaciones FC | 1.45 | 63.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | FAS – CD Inca | over 2.5 | 1.49 | 61.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 03:00 | 🏒 NHL | Vancouver Canucks – Vegas Golden Knights | 2 · Vegas Golden Knights | 1.40 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 03:15 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Llaneros FC – America Cali | X2 | 1.28 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Nikaragva – Dominikanska Republika | 12 | 1.23 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 13:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Bejlek Sara – Osaka Naomi | 2 · Osaka Naomi | 1.30 | 73.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Zverev Alexander – Dokovic Novak | 1 · Zverev Alexander | 1.40 | 71.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA 2 | Real Sociedad B – Granada CF | X2 | 1.47 | 62.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 14:30 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Muchova Karolina – Samsonova Liudmila | 1 · Muchova Karolina | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Azerbajdzan – Litva | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Danubio FC – Cerro Largo | 1X | 1.25 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 15:30 | 🏈 NFL | Washington Commanders – Indianapolis Colts | 2 · Indianapolis Colts | 1.45 | 65.5% | 60.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 13-30 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Bangor FC – Coleraine | over 2.5 | 1.39 | 66.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA 2 | Sporting Gijon – RC Celta De Vigo B | 12 | 1.24 | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Enyimba – Plateau Utd | 12 | 1.23 | 74.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Gruzija - EROVNULI LIGA | FC Iberia 1999 – Dinamo Tbilisi | 1X | 1.32 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Inter Lagos FC – Katsina Utd | 1X | 1.22 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Naft Masjed Soleyman – Fard Alborz | X2 | 1.26 | 69.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Rivers Utd – Ikorodu City | 1 · Rivers Utd | 1.22 | 74.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Shooting Stars – Nasarawa Utd | 12 | 1.22 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | CA Boston River – Juventud Piedras | 12 | 1.28 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Kosovo – Austrija | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Malta – Andora | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA 2 | Las Palmas – Real Valladolid | 1X | 1.30 | 71.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots | 1 · Buffalo Bills | 1.32 | 72.0% | 68.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 26-29 |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Chicago Bears – NY Jets | 1 · Chicago Bears | 1.50 | 63.0% | 68.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 23-12 |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Cincinnati Bengals – Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 · Cincinnati Bengals | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 17-22 | |
| 19:00 | 🏒 NHL | Detroit Red Wings – Winnipeg Jets | 1 · Detroit Red Wings | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Houston Texans – Dallas Cowboys | 1 · Houston Texans | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 30-34 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | NY Giants – Arizona Cardinals | 1 · NY Giants | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 36-24 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Philadelphia Eagles – Los Angeles Rams | 1 · Philadelphia Eagles | 2.50 | 37.5% | 42.5% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 20-24 |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Green Bay Packers | 1 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.40 | 40.0% | 45.0% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 14-17 |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Huracan – CA Aldosivi | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Agropecuario Argentino – Ferrocarril Midland | 12 | 1.37 | 68.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Chacarita Juniors – Patronato Parana | 1X | 1.24 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | San Telmo – Almirante Brown | 1X | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Grcka – Njemacka | 12 | 1.35 | 74.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Irska – Izrael | 12 | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Nizozemska – Srbija | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Portugal – Norveska | 1X | 1.25 | 79.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Wales – Danska | 12 | 1.35 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | AD Pasto – Fortaleza FC | 1X | 1.30 | 71.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | CA Cerro – Montevideo Wanderers | X2 | 1.37 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA 2 | Girona FC – RCD Mallorca | 1X | 1.40 | 65.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvajana – Dominika | over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | CA Central Norte Salta – Racing Cordoba | 1X | 1.21 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Bahami – Americki Djevicanski Otoci | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | CA Guemes – CA Colegiales | 12 | 1.37 | 69.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Chaco For Ever – Defensores Belgrano | 1X | 1.24 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 22:00 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4-3 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Otoci Turks I Caicos – Brit. Djevicanski Otoci | 12 | 1.22 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | San Martin De San Juan – Almagro | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Talleres Cordoba – CA Belgrano | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Las Vegas Raiders – Kansas City Chiefs | 2 · Kansas City Chiefs | 1.45 | 65.9% | 60.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 27-30 |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | San Francisco 49ers – Denver Broncos | 1 · San Francisco 49ers | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 24-14 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Seattle Seahawks – Los Angeles Chargers | 1 · Seattle Seahawks | 1.28 | 74.3% | 79.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 30-23 |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Atletico De Rafaela – CA Atlanta | 12 | 1.42 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Montego Bay Utd – Dunbeholden FC | 1 · Montego Bay Utd | 1.27 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Treasure Beach FC – Humble Lions | 12 | 1.21 | 75.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Tru-Juice FC – Tivoli Gardens | X2 | 1.50 | 61.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | CD Platense Zacatecoluca – Municipal Limeno | X2 | 1.35 | 68.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-1 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | Godoy Cruz – Atletico Los Andes | 12 | 1.33 | 71.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 23:05 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Cucuta Deportivo – CS Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1.24 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-0 | |
| 23:05 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Internacional De Bogota – CD Once Caldas | 1X | 1.47 | 62.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Argentina - PRIMERA NACIONAL | San Martin Tucuman – Gimnasia YT Salta | 12 | 1.35 | 69.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Aruba – Angvila | 1 | 1.03 | 88.3% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Portoriko – Kajmanski Otoci | 1 | 1.05 | 86.6% |
| WTA PEKING | Vekic Donna – Swiatek Iga | 2 | 1.05 | 90.5% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Gvajana – Dominika | 1 | 1.10 | 82.9% |
| NFL | Baltimore Ravens – Tennessee Titans | 1 | 1.12 | 84.7% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Nizozemska – Srbija | 1 | 1.15 | 82.8% |
| NFL | Minnesota Vikings – Miami Dolphins | 1 | 1.16 | 82.3% |
| Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Rivers Utd – Ikorodu City | 1 | 1.22 | 74.2% |
| Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Bangor FC – Coleraine | 2 | 1.23 | 74.9% |
| WTA PEKING | Muchova Karolina – Samsonova Liudmila | 1 | 1.25 | 75.7% |
| Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Montego Bay Utd – Dunbeholden FC | 1 | 1.27 | 71.3% |
| NFL | Seattle Seahawks – Los Angeles Chargers | 1 | 1.28 | 74.3% |