Probabilities & picks · 7 October 2026
46 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 26 of 42 settled picks correct (61.9%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Gnistan – Inter Turku · X2 · 1.30
- Paris Basketball – ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne · 1X · 1.35
- Cruzeiro MG – Sao Paulo SP · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 41.8%
❌ lost
Medium
- Derthona – Le Mans SB · 1X · 1.50
- U-BT Cluj Napoca – Reyer Venezia · X2 · 1.50
- Vila Nova GO – Cuiaba EC · under 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 26.4%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Atlanta Braves – Los Angeles Dodgers · 1 · Atlanta Braves · 2.20
- SC Internacional RS – Corinthians SP · over 2.5 · 2.20
- Clube Do Remo PA – Gremio FBPA RS · under 2.5 · 1.95
total odds: 9.44 · announced probability of winning: 9.1%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-4 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Avai SC – Londrina PR | 1X | 1.27 | 72.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Clube Do Remo PA – Gremio FBPA RS | 1X | 1.32 | 71.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Operario Ferroviario – Botafogo SP | 1X | 1.20 | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | RB Bragantino SP – Mirassol SP | 1X | 1.22 | 76.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | SC Internacional RS – Corinthians SP | 12 | 1.35 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | EC Vitoria BA – Chapecoense SC | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-0 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Kanada - PREMIER LEAGUE | Forge FC Hamilton – Pacific FC | 1 · Forge FC Hamilton | 1.28 | 70.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | America MG – Fortaleza CE | X2 | 1.22 | 75.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Botafogo RJ – Vasco Da Gama RJ | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | CR Brasil AL – AC Goianiense GO | 1X | 1.20 | 77.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Vila Nova GO – Cuiaba EC | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Washington Capitals – Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 · Washington Capitals | 1.60 | 57.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-3 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | Winnipeg Jets – Colorado Avalanche | 2 · Colorado Avalanche | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-2 |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-4 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Cruzeiro MG – Sao Paulo SP | 12 | 1.30 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Anaheim Ducks – Edmonton Oilers | 1 · Anaheim Ducks | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-5 |
| 04:00 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Milwaukee Brewers | 2 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Alexandrova Ekaterina – Andreeva Mirra | 2 · Andreeva Mirra | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Muchova Karolina – Bartunkova Nikola | 1 · Muchova Karolina | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 11:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Bellucci Mattia – Zhou Yi | 1 · Bellucci Mattia | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 12:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Wu Yibing – Zheng Michael | 1 · Wu Yibing | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 12:20 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Rune Holger – Altmaier Daniel | 1 · Rune Holger | 1.45 | 65.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 13:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Charaeva Alina – Zheng Qinwen | 2 · Zheng Qinwen | 1.27 | 74.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 13:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Fery Arthur – Cilic Marin | 1 · Fery Arthur | 1.65 | 61.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Buriram United – Borneo Samarinda | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 61.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Ratchaburi FC – Ho Chi Minh City | 1 · Ratchaburi FC | 1.50 | 60.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 14:10 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Li Ann – Svitolina Elina | 2 · Svitolina Elina | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Kuching FA – Tampines Rovers | 12 | 1.20 | 77.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Irak - STARS LEAGUE | AL Mosul SC – Al Quwa Al Jawiya | X2 | 1.26 | 72.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Shooting Stars – Kano Pillars | 1 · Shooting Stars | 1.47 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Kanada - PREMIER LEAGUE | York Utd – FC Supra Du Quebec | X2 | 1.32 | 69.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Finska - VEIKKAUSLIIGA | Gnistan – Inter Turku | X2 | 1.30 | 77.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROKUP | U-BT Cluj Napoca – Reyer Venezia | X2 | 1.50 | 64.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 98-92 |
| 19:00 | 🏀 EUROKUP | Aris Solun – CB San Pablo Burgos | 1X | 1.26 | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 93-80 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | Ben Aknoun – JS El Biar | 1X | 1.30 | 71.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | CS Constantine – US Biskra | under 2.5 | 1.39 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 19:00 | 🏀 EUROKUP | Niners Chemnitz – Neptunas Klaipeda | 1X | 1.47 | 65.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 93-84 |
| 19:30 | 🏀 EUROKUP | Derthona – Le Mans SB | 1X | 1.50 | 64.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 89-83 |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROKUP | Basquet Manresa – Ulm | 1X | 1.47 | 66.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 101-89 |
| 20:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Paris Basketball – ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne | 1 · Paris Basketball | 1.50 | 66.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 96-98 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | CR Belouizdad – USM Khenchela | 1 · CR Belouizdad | 1.50 | 61.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 22:00 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-9 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROKUP | Balkan Botevgrad – Bahcesehir Koleji | 2 | 1.07 | 88.8% |
| EUROKUP | BC Roma Spqr – BC Lietkabelis | 1 | 1.17 | 81.1% |
| Uzbekistan - SUPERLIGA | FK Neftchi Fargona – Xorazm FK Urganch | 1 | 1.18 | 77.1% |
| Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Buriram United – Borneo Samarinda | 1 | 1.26 | 71.8% |
| ATP SHANGHAI | Bellucci Mattia – Zhou Yi | 1 | 1.27 | 75.0% |
| WTA PEKING | Charaeva Alina – Zheng Qinwen | 2 | 1.27 | 74.4% |
| Kanada - PREMIER LEAGUE | Forge FC Hamilton – Pacific FC | 1 | 1.28 | 70.2% |
| WTA PEKING | Alexandrova Ekaterina – Andreeva Mirra | 2 | 1.28 | 73.8% |