Probabilities & picks · 8 October 2026
62 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 40 of 59 settled picks correct (67.8%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- HJK Helsinki – Vaasa PS · 12 · 1.30
- BC Dubai – Crvena Zvezda Beograd · 1X · 1.30
- Alexandrova Ekaterina – Andreeva Mirra · 2 · Andreeva Mirra · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 42.1%
❌ lost
Medium
- Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce Istanbul · 1X · 1.50
- Maccabi Tel Aviv – Olimpia Milano · 1X · 1.60
- Renaissance Zemamra – Hassania Agadir · under 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 26.2%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Chicago White Sox – Cleveland Guardians · 1 · Chicago White Sox · 2.00
- Union Touarga – RS Berkane · over 2.5 · 2.35
- KuPS Kuopio – AC Oulu · under 2.5 · 2.20
total odds: 10.34 · announced probability of winning: 8.3%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Santos SP – Flamengo RJ | 12 | 1.28 | 73.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Boston Bruins – Utah Mammoth | 1 · Boston Bruins | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-1 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Buffalo Sabres – Dallas Stars | 1 · Buffalo Sabres | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-4 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Carolina Hurricanes – Vancouver Canucks | 1 · Carolina Hurricanes | 1.28 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 7-2 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Montreal Canadiens – Nashville Predators | 1 · Montreal Canadiens | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-5 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Ottawa Senators – Philadelphia Flyers | 1 · Ottawa Senators | 1.65 | 56.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Paranaense PR – Atletico Mineiro | 1X | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Tampa Bay Lightning – Minnesota Wild | 1 · Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 01:05 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Atletico Nacional Medellin – CD Tolima | 12 | 1.23 | 76.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | New York Islanders – Chicago Blackhawks | 1 · New York Islanders | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5-9 |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | St. Louis Blues – San Jose Sharks | 1 · St. Louis Blues | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | Dallas Cowboys – Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 · Dallas Cowboys | 1.22 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 16-24 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Fluminense RJ – Coritiba FC | 12 | 1.21 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-0 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Palmeiras SP – Bahia BA | 12 | 1.23 | 77.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Gvatemala - LIGA NACIONAL, APERTURA | Antigua GFC – Municipal | 12 | 1.30 | 71.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 03:00 | 🏒 NHL | Calgary Flames – Colorado Avalanche | 2 · Colorado Avalanche | 1.42 | 65.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-7 |
| 03:10 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Fortaleza FC – Millonarios FC | 12 | 1.28 | 73.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 03:30 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | FAS – Alianza San Salvador | 12 | 1.22 | 75.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Arnaldi Matteo – Fritz Taylor | 2 · Fritz Taylor | 1.20 | 79.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Dokovic Novak – Hurkacz Hubert | 1 · Dokovic Novak | 1.47 | 64.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Vegas Golden Knights – Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 · Vegas Golden Knights | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-3 |
| 11:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Landaluce Martin – Struff Jan-Lennard | 1 · Landaluce Martin | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 11:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Van De Zandschulp Botic – Merida Daniel | 1 · Van De Zandschulp Botic | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 12:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Van Assche Luca – Bu Yunchaokete | 1 · Van Assche Luca | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 12:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Kopriva Vit – Bergs Zizou | 2 · Bergs Zizou | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 13:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Alexandrova Ekaterina – Andreeva Mirra | 2 · Andreeva Mirra | 1.30 | 73.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 13:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Norrie Cameron – Svrcina Dalibor | 1 · Norrie Cameron | 1.47 | 64.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 13:30 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Lion City Sailors – Hanoi Police FC | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Johor DT – Svay Rieng FC | 1 · Johor DT | 1.30 | 71.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - ASEAN KLUPSKO PRVENSTVO | Port FC – Persib Bandung | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Aluminium Arak – Malavan Bandar Anzali | 1X | 1.28 | 71.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Nassaji Mazandaran – Zob Ahan Isfahan | X2 | 1.50 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 15:15 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Gol Gohar Sirjan – Esteghlal Khuzestan | 1X | 1.22 | 75.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Tractor Sport Club – Esteghlal FC | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 62.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 16:45 | ⚽ Katar - STARS LIGA | Al Shamal – Al Duhail | 12 | 1.25 | 73.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-4 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA II | ASU Politehnica Timisoara – CSA Steaua Bukurest | 1 · ASU Politehnica Timisoara | 1.47 | 61.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska - VEIKKAUSLIIGA | HJK Helsinki – Vaasa PS | 12 | 1.30 | 76.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Jordan - PRO LEAGUE | Shabab Al Ordun – Al-Baqaa | 1X | 1.30 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-3 |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Sepahan SC – Fajr Sepasi | 12 | 1.24 | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-1 |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Foolad Khuzestan – Mes Shahr-E Babak | 12 | 1.27 | 72.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | BC Dubai – Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 1X | 1.30 | 74.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 58-77 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Finska - VEIKKAUSLIIGA | KuPS Kuopio – AC Oulu | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Maccabi Tel Aviv – Olimpia Milano | 1X | 1.60 | 61.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 97-79 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Union Touarga – RS Berkane | X2 | 1.30 | 70.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Katar - STARS LIGA | Al Wakrah – Al Gharafa SC | 12 | 1.25 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | JS Saoura – Olympique Akbou | 1X | 1.20 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | MB Rouisset – USM Alger | X2 | 1.30 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-0 |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | CFR Cluj – Universitatea Cluj | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-3 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | AS Far Rabat – Widad Temara | 1 · AS Far Rabat | 1.40 | 64.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 20:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Bayern Munchen – Virtus Bologna | 1X | 1.35 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 87-94 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Renaissance Zemamra – Hassania Agadir | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Peru - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | UCV Moquegua – CS Cienciano | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 20:15 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce Istanbul | 1X | 1.50 | 66.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 92-74 |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Valencia BC – Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1X | 1.65 | 58.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 93-82 |
| 20:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Real Madrid – Partizan Beograd | 1X | 1.21 | 80.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 86-76 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | MC Oran – ES Setif | 1X | 1.23 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Irska - PREMIER DIVISION | Shamrock Rovers – Drogheda Utd | 1 · Shamrock Rovers | 1.35 | 69.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Maghreb Fes – Raja Casablanca | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Peru - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Atletico Grau – Los Chankas CYC | 12 | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Portmore Utd – Waterhouse | 1X | 1.45 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP SHANGHAI | Ugo Carabelli Camilo – Auger Aliassime Felix | 2 | 1.02 | 94.0% |
| ATP SHANGHAI | Arnaldi Matteo – Fritz Taylor | 2 | 1.20 | 79.7% |
| NFL | Dallas Cowboys – Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 1.22 | 78.3% |
| EUROLIGA | Real Madrid – Partizan Beograd | 1 | 1.28 | 74.3% |
| NHL | Carolina Hurricanes – Vancouver Canucks | 1 | 1.28 | 72.6% |