Probabilities & picks · 7 September 2026
52 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 24 of 47 settled picks correct (51.1%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Mjallby AIF – IFK Goteborg · 12 · 1.30
- Cagliari – US Lecce · 12 · 1.35
- Caykur Rizespor – Alanyaspor · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 43.0%
✅ won
Medium
- Getafe CF – Celta Vigo · 12 · 1.50
- Udinese – SS Lazio · X2 · 1.55
- Boston Red Sox – LA Angels · 1 · Boston Red Sox · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 30.1%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Baltimore Orioles – Cleveland Guardians · 2 · Cleveland Guardians · 2.10
- Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs · 2 · Chicago Cubs · 2.00
- San Francisco Giants – St. Louis Cardinals · 2 · St. Louis Cardinals · 2.10
total odds: 8.82 · announced probability of winning: 10.7%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central – Argentinos Juniors | under 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Brazil Brasileirao | EC Vitoria BA – Gremio FBPA RS | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Jovic Iva – Gauff Coco | 2 · Gauff Coco | 1.35 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – St. Louis Cardinals | 2 · St. Louis Cardinals | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:4 | |
| 02:15 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe – Instituto Cordoba | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 03:10 | ⚾ MLB | LA Dodgers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · LA Dodgers | 1.65 | 57.7% | 53.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6:3 |
| 04:05 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Toronto Blue Jays | 2 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.47 | 64.3% | 69.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:5 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sj. Makedonija 1. MFL | Struga Trim Lum – Sileks | 1X | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Rumunjska Liga I | FC Voluntari – Arges Pitesti | 12 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga | Asteras Tripolis – PO Triglias | 1 · Asteras Tripolis | 1.85 | 49.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 17:45 | ⚽ Litva A liga | Hegelmann Kaunas – FK Panevezys | 1X | 1.42 | 65.1% | 68.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:3 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Cipar 1. divizija | Pafos FC – Olympiakos Nicosia | 1 · Pafos FC | 1.40 | 65.9% | 58.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Latvija Virsliga | Rigas FS – FK Liepaja | 1 · Rigas FS | 1.33 | 68.7% | 60.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Wieczysta Krakow – Zaglebie Lubin | 1X | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Cagliari – US Lecce | 12 | 1.35 | 69.7% | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Rusija Premier League | Rubin Kazan – Akhmat Grozny | 12 | 1.35 | 69.1% | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Izrael Premier League | Maccabi Netanya – Hapoel Haifa | 1 · Maccabi Netanya | 1.90 | 47.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Cipar 1. divizija | Aris Limassol – AC Omonia Nicosia | X2 | 1.33 | 70.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:4 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Caykur Rizespor – Alanyaspor | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 19:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Cerundolo Francisco – Blockx Alexander | 2 · Blockx Alexander | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | FC Midtjylland – FC Nordsjaelland | 1 · FC Midtjylland | 1.90 | 49.3% | 57.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Getafe CF – Celta Vigo | 12 | 1.50 | 66.5% | 72.1% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Goztepe Izmir – Gaziantep FK | 1 · Goztepe Izmir | 1.90 | 48.6% | 55.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:4 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Izrael Premier League | Hapoel Tel Aviv – Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim | 1 · Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.40 | 65.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | Kalmar FF – Djurgardens IF | over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | Malmo FF – AIK Stockholm | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | Mjallby AIF – IFK Goteborg | 12 | 1.30 | 73.0% | 77.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:4 |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.60 | 60.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – NY Mets | 2 · NY Mets | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:9 | |
| 19:15 | ⚽ Izrael Premier League | Bnei Sakhnin – Beitar Jerusalem | over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Bugarska Parva liga | Dunav Ruse – Slavia Sofia | X2 | 1.45 | 64.3% | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Izrael Premier League | Hapoel Beer Sheva – Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1X | 1.40 | 65.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:4 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Rumunjska Liga I | Universitatea Craiova 1948 – Universitatea Cluj | over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Cleveland Guardians | 2 · Cleveland Guardians | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:4 | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – LA Angels | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.55 | 61.3% | 64.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:2 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | OFK Beograd – FK IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 1.32 | 69.4% | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:5 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs | 2 · Chicago Cubs | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:3 | |
| 20:30 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Gea Arthur – Van De Zandschulp Botic | 2 · Van De Zandschulp Botic | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 20:30 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Osaka Naomi – Rybakina Elena | 2 · Rybakina Elena | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin – Wisla Plock | 1 · Pogon Szczecin | 1.90 | 48.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Udinese – SS Lazio | 12 | 1.45 | 69.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Minnesota Twins | 2 · Minnesota Twins | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 5:4 | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | GD Estoril Praia – FC Arouca | X2 | 1.55 | 60.6% | 64.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Elche CF – Real Sociedad | 1X | 1.75 | 56.4% | 61.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:3 |
| 22:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Khachanov Karen – Tien Learner | 2 · Tien Learner | 1.60 | 62.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 3-2 | |
| 23:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.50 | 63.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open, ATP | Zverev Alexander – Darderi Luciano | 1 | 1.07 | 88.9% |
| US Open, WTA | Andreeva Mirra – Potapova Anastasia | 1 | 1.14 | 83.6% |
| US Open, WTA | Swiatek Iga – Zheng Qinwen | 1 | 1.22 | 77.9% |
| Latvija Virsliga | Riga FC – BFC Daugavpils | 1 | 1.28 | 71.6% |
| Sj. Makedonija 1. MFL | Vardar – FK Arsimi 1973 | 1 | 1.28 | 70.6% |