Probabilities & picks · 8 September 2026
45 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 27 of 39 settled picks correct (69.2%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal · 12 · 1.30
- NY Yankees – Colorado Rockies · 1 · NY Yankees · 1.30
- LA Dodgers – Cincinnati Reds · 1 · LA Dodgers · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 48.0%
✅ won
Medium
- San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals · 1 · San Diego Padres · 1.50
- Oakland Athletics – Toronto Blue Jays · 2 · Toronto Blue Jays · 1.55
- Sabalenka Aryna – Noskova Linda · 1 · Sabalenka Aryna · 1.50
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 30.2%
✅ won
Riskier
- Philadelphia Phillies – Houston Astros · 2 · Houston Astros · 2.20
- Boston Red Sox – LA Angels · 2 · LA Angels · 2.20
- Atlanta Braves – Tampa Bay Rays · 2 · Tampa Bay Rays · 2.00
total odds: 9.68 · announced probability of winning: 10.9%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Copa Libertadores | Fluminense RJ – Platense | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Copa Sudamericana | Independiente Santa Fe – Vasco Da Gama RJ | 12 | 1.35 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 00:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:9 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Minnesota Twins | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.70 | 55.8% | 60.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:3 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – NY Mets | 1 · Miami Marlins | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:7 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Houston Astros | 2 · Houston Astros | 2.20 | 43.6% | 48.6% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:6 |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – LA Angels | 2 · LA Angels | 2.20 | 43.6% | 46.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:6 |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Colorado Rockies | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.30 | 73.5% | 78.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:3 |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Tampa Bay Rays | 2 · Tampa Bay Rays | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:7 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.65 | 57.1% | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:9 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:5 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.45 | 65.5% | 70.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Copa Sudamericana | Boca Juniors – Sao Paulo SP | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Toronto Blue Jays | 2 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.55 | 61.7% | 66.7% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:4 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.50 | 63.0% | 68.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:4 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Texas Rangers | 2 · Texas Rangers | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5:10 | |
| 03:45 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – St. Louis Cardinals | 2 · St. Louis Cardinals | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | LA Dodgers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · LA Dodgers | 1.30 | 72.9% | 77.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 |
| 12:30 | ⚽ J. Koreja K-Liga 1 | Incheon Utd – Bucheon FC | 12 | 1.33 | 70.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 12:30 | ⚽ J. Koreja K-Liga 1 | Ulsan Hyundai – FC Seoul | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Estonija Premium Liiga | JK Narva Trans – Flora Tallinn | 2 · Flora Tallinn | 1.60 | 58.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti – IFK Mariehamn | over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | Ilves Tampere – FF Jaro | over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Estonija Premium Liiga | Nomme Kalju – Nomme Utd | 1 · Nomme Kalju | 1.45 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | TPS Turku – SJK Seinajoen | X2 | 1.42 | 64.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | Vaasa PS – AC Oulu | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 17:30 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Sabalenka Aryna – Noskova Linda | 1 · Sabalenka Aryna | 1.50 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | Gnistan – KuPS Kuopio | over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | AEK Atena – LASK Linz | 1 · AEK Atena | 1.75 | 52.7% | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 18:45 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Club Brugge – Aston Villa | X2 | 1.50 | 62.7% | 66.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior Rotterdam | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Tiafoe Frances – Michelsen Alex | 1 · Tiafoe Frances | 1.70 | 59.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Blackburn Rovers – Sheffield Utd | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Cardiff – Stoke City | 1X | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Southampton – Swansea City | over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Watford – Preston North End | 1X | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Wrexham AFC – Burnley | 12 | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska Championship | Bolton Wanderers – West Ham | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal | 12 | 1.30 | 77.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | FC Porto – Manchester City | 12 | 1.30 | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Lille OSC – Real Betis | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Real Madrid – Inter Milano | 12 | 1.30 | 77.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sj. Irska Premiership | Larne FC – Bangor FC | 1 | 1.13 | 80.2% |
| US Open, WTA | Pegula Jessica – Navarro Emma | 1 | 1.21 | 78.4% |
| US Open, ATP | Shelton Ben – Alcaraz Carlos | 2 | 1.23 | 77.3% |