Probabilities & picks · 9 September 2026
61 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 38 of 55 settled picks correct (69.1%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- SSC Napoli – Arsenal FC · 12 · 1.35
- Sporting Lisabon – Galatasaray SK · 12 · 1.30
- Liverpool FC – Atletico Madrid · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 50.8%
✅ won
Medium
- Oakland Athletics – Toronto Blue Jays · 2 · Toronto Blue Jays · 1.50
- San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals · 1 · San Diego Padres · 1.55
- Andreeva Mirra – Gauff Coco · 2 · Gauff Coco · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 28.0%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Chicago White Sox – Pittsburgh Pirates · 2 · Pittsburgh Pirates · 2.25
- Glasgow Rangers – St. Mirren · under 2.5 · 2.63
- Seattle Mariners – Texas Rangers · 2 · Texas Rangers · 2.30
total odds: 13.61 · announced probability of winning: 6.7%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras SP – LDU Quito | 1 · Palmeiras SP | 1.33 | 70.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Copa Sudamericana | Santos SP – Atletico Mineiro | 1X | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 00:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Cleveland Guardians | 2 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 9:5 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – NY Mets | 1 · Miami Marlins | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 14:15 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Houston Astros | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 11:7 | |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.47 | 64.7% | 69.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:6 |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Colorado Rockies | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.42 | 67.1% | 70.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:1 |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Tampa Bay Rays | 2 · Tampa Bay Rays | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:7 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Atlanta Utd – Orlando City | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | DC Utd – Columbus Crew | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Montreal – Charlotte FC | 1X | 1.45 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Toronto – Nashville SC | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.65 | 57.7% | 52.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:4 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:2 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:6 | |
| 01:45 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Philadelphia Union – Cincinnati | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ SAD MLS | New York City FC – New England Revolution | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Austin FC – Colorado Rapids | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Chicago Fire – Inter Miami | 1X | 1.45 | 64.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Copa Libertadores | Estudiantes De La Plata – Corinthians SP | under 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Houston Dynamo – Real Salt Lake | over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Minnesota Utd – Dallas | 1X | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.37 | 69.4% | 74.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 14:1 |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Los Angeles FC – NY Red Bulls | over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Portland Timbers – Saint Louis City | 1X | 1.45 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 | |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | San Diego FC – San Jose Earthquakes | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps – Los Angeles Galaxy | over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Armenija Premier League | Sardarapat FC – Pyunik Yerevan | 2 · Pyunik Yerevan | 1.45 | 62.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:4 | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Azerbajdzan 1. divizija | Shahdagh Samur Gusar – Karvan Yevlakh | 1X | 1.65 | 55.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Kosovo Superliga | Feronikeli – KF Drita | 2 · KF Drita | 1.47 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Gruzija Erovnuli Liga | FC Spaeri – Rustavi | X2 | 1.30 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | FK Jablonec – Banik Ostrava | over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki – Inter Turku | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Gruzija Erovnuli Liga | Samgurali Tskaltubo – FC Dila Gori | 1X | 1.50 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:3 | |
| 17:30 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Zheng Qinwen – Rybakina Elena | 2 · Rybakina Elena | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 17:45 | ⚽ Litva A Liga | Kauno Zalgiris – Suduva Marijampole | X2 | 1.70 | 54.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 5:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ BiH Premijer liga | FK Zeljeznicar – FK Sarajevo | 12 | 1.35 | 69.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Estonija Premium Liiga | Parnu JK Vaprus – Harju JK Laagri | 1X | 1.42 | 66.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Estonija Premium Liiga | Tartu Tammeka – Paide Linnameeskond | X2 | 1.35 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 18:40 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Andreeva Mirra – Gauff Coco | 2 · Gauff Coco | 1.55 | 64.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Gruzija Erovnuli Liga | FC Dinamo Batumi – FC Iberia 1999 | X2 | 1.65 | 55.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Kosovo Superliga | Gjilani – FC Ballkani | 2 · FC Ballkani | 2.00 | 45.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Hradec Kralove – Viktoria Plzen | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Minnesota Twins | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7:2 | |
| 20:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Khachanov Karen – Blockx Alexander | 1 · Khachanov Karen | 1.65 | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Skotska Premiership | Glasgow Rangers – St. Mirren | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Liverpool FC – Atletico Madrid | 12 | 1.30 | 77.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | SSC Napoli – Arsenal FC | 12 | 1.35 | 74.7% | 80.4% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Sporting Lisabon – Galatasaray SK | 1 · Sporting Lisabon | 1.80 | 55.6% | 62.2% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Skotska Premiership | St. Johnstone – Celtic Glasgow | 2 · Celtic Glasgow | 1.45 | 64.2% | 71.0% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Toronto Blue Jays | 2 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.50 | 63.0% | 66.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:0 |
| 21:45 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense FC – Benfica Lisabon | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:45 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – St. Louis Cardinals | 2 · St. Louis Cardinals | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:6 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.55 | 61.7% | 64.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 9:2 |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Texas Rangers | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.65 | 58.2% | 54.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Liga prvaka | Paris SG – Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1.03 | 91.1% |
| US Open, ATP | Zverev Alexander – Van De Zandschulp Botic | 1 | 1.09 | 87.5% |
| UEFA Liga prvaka | FC Barcelona – Feyenoord | 1 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Estonija Premium Liiga | Levadia Tallinn – Kuressaare | 1 | 1.14 | 81.9% |
| Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense FC – Benfica Lisabon | 2 | 1.15 | 81.4% |
| UEFA Liga prvaka | VfB Stuttgart – Viking FK | 1 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| Nizozemska Eredivisie | Twente Enschede – SC Telstar | 1 | 1.25 | 74.7% |