Probabilities & picks · 10 September 2026
30 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 13 of 25 settled picks correct (52.0%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- NY Yankees – Colorado Rockies · 1 · NY Yankees · 1.30
- Fenerbahce Istanbul – AS Roma · 12 · 1.40
- Como 1907 – RB Leipzig · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.37 · announced probability of winning: 44.2%
❌ lost
Medium
- Slavia Prag – Lens · X2 · 1.55
- Philadelphia Phillies – Houston Astros · 1 · Philadelphia Phillies · 1.55
- Sabalenka Aryna – Pegula Jessica · 1 · Sabalenka Aryna · 1.60
total odds: 3.84 · announced probability of winning: 28.5%
❌ lost
Riskier
total odds: · announced probability of winning: —
⏳ pending
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Sabalenka Aryna – Pegula Jessica | 1 · Sabalenka Aryna | 1.60 | 62.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Colorado Rockies | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.30 | 72.9% | 77.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 10:3 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.90 | 50.0% | 46.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:2 |
| 02:10 | 🎾 US Open, WTA | Gauff Coco – Rybakina Elena | 1 · Gauff Coco | 2.00 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Copa Sudamericana | CS Cienciano – Montevideo City Torque | over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Copa Libertadores | Independiente Del Valle – Flamengo RJ | 1X | 1.50 | 62.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija Primera A | Millonarios FC – AD Cali | under 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 05:05 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Pumas UNAM – Club Leon | 1X | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Gruzija Erovnuli Liga | Dinamo Tbilisi – FC Meshakhte Tkibuli | 1 · Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.40 | 64.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Srbija Prva liga | Teleoptik – FK Naftagas Elemir | 1X | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Latvija Virsliga | Super Nova – FK Tukums 2000 | 1X | 1.35 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 18:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Tampa Bay Rays | 2 · Tampa Bay Rays | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:1 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Fenerbahce Istanbul – AS Roma | 12 | 1.40 | 72.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | PSV Eindhoven – Shakhtar Donetsk | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Kosovo Superliga | Dukadjini – KF Malisheva | X2 | 1.45 | 62.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Gruzija Erovnuli Liga | FC Gagra – Torpedo Kutaisi | 1X | 1.70 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Superettan | Falkenbergs FF – Osters IF | over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Superettan | GIF Sundsvall – Orebro SK | over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Superettan | Ostersunds – IK Brage | over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Superettan | Varbergs BoIS – IFK Norrkoping | X2 | 1.30 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Houston Astros | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.55 | 61.7% | 66.7% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:2 |
| 20:15 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga | Panathinaikos – AE Kifisia | over 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Como 1907 – RB Leipzig | 12 | 1.30 | 77.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ UEFA Liga prvaka | Slavia Prag – Lens | X2 | 1.55 | 65.0% | 68.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska League One | Stevenage FC – Luton Town | X2 | 1.33 | 69.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela Amadora – SC Braga | 2 · SC Braga | 1.65 | 56.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Texas Rangers | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.75 | 54.5% | 51.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Liga prvaka | Bayern Munchen – Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 1.07 | 86.9% |
| UEFA Liga prvaka | Manchester Utd – Sabah Masazir | 1 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Grcka Super liga | Panathinaikos – AE Kifisia | 1 | 1.25 | 74.8% |
| Srbija Superliga | Radnik Surdulica – Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 2 | 1.28 | 72.6% |