Probabilities & picks · 11 September 2026
42 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 29 of 39 settled picks correct (74.4%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Rennes – Olympique Marseille · 12 · 1.35
- Venezia – AC Fiorentina · 12 · 1.33
- Club Tijuana De Caliente – Queretaro FC · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.33 · announced probability of winning: 41.6%
✅ won
Medium
- Oakland Athletics – Seattle Mariners · 2 · Seattle Mariners · 1.60
- Washington Nationals – Los Angeles Angels · 1 · Washington Nationals · 1.65
- Besiktas – Erzurumspor · over 2.5 · 1.53
total odds: 4.04 · announced probability of winning: 25.1%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Sevilla FC – Valencia CF · over 2.5 · 2.30
- Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles · 2 · Baltimore Orioles · 2.00
total odds: 4.60 · announced probability of winning: 19.3%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa Y Justicia – Gimnasia Esgrima Mendoza | 12 | 1.30 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:2 | |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Washington Nationals | 1.65 | 58.2% | 63.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 |
| 01:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP | Tiafoe Frances – Shelton Ben | 2 · Shelton Ben | 1.40 | 71.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – NY Mets | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.70 | 55.8% | 51.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:4 |
| 01:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles | 2 · Baltimore Orioles | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:7 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Kansas City Royals | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.50 | 63.4% | 68.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:3 |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.47 | 64.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:6 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Houston Astros | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 1.50 | 63.0% | 68.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:5 |
| 01:45 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 20:0 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Brazil Serie A | Coritiba FC – Paranaense PR | X2 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:3 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – Cleveland Guardians | 2 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:5 | |
| 02:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – Chicago White Sox | 2 · Chicago White Sox | 1.85 | 50.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:3 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors – Central Cordoba | 1 · Boca Juniors | 1.40 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Necaxa – Puebla | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Texas Rangers | 2 · Texas Rangers | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 9:1 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.60 | 60.0% | 65.0% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:5 |
| 04:15 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.70 | 56.4% | 52.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:7 |
| 05:00 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Atlante FC – CF Pachuca | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 05:10 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Club Tijuana De Caliente – Queretaro FC | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Armenija Premier League | Van – FC BKMA Yerevan | 2 · FC BKMA Yerevan | 1.90 | 47.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa – Motor Lublin | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Albanija Kategoria Superiore | Skenderbeu – Tirana | 12 | 1.30 | 69.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | Zeleznicar Pancevo – FK Macva Sabac | 1 · Zeleznicar Pancevo | 1.35 | 67.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | BK Hacken – Mjallby AIF | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Besiktas – Erzurumspor | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | FC Kopenhagen – AC Horsens | 1 · FC Kopenhagen | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:10 | ⚽ Bjelorusija Vysshaya Liga | FC Minsk – Slavia Mozyr | X2 | 1.45 | 63.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | SV JF Ried – Red Bull Salzburg | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:20 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Chicago Cubs | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 12:2 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Union Berlin – Schalke 04 | 12 | 1.40 | 71.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Wisla Krakow – Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1X | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sj. Irska Premiership | Coleraine – Ballymena Utd | 1 · Coleraine | 1.45 | 63.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | KV Mechelen – Anderlecht | 1X | 1.90 | 49.2% | 54.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Rennes – Olympique Marseille | 12 | 1.35 | 74.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Venezia – AC Fiorentina | 12 | 1.33 | 70.5% | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:4 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Sevilla FC – Valencia CF | 12 | 1.40 | 71.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's Old Boys – Velez Sarsfield | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizozemska Eredivisie | AZ Alkmaar – Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 1.10 | 84.2% |
| Armenija Premier League | Ararat Armenija – FC Syunik | 1 | 1.13 | 79.9% |
| US Open, ATP | Zverev Alexander – Khachanov Karen | 1 | 1.19 | 79.8% |
| Turska Super liga | Besiktas – Erzurumspor | 1 | 1.25 | 75.0% |