Probabilities & picks · 12 September 2026
81 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 49 of 79 settled picks correct (62.0%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Sunderland – Arsenal FC · 12 · 1.30
- AIK Stockholm – Vasteras SK · 12 · 1.30
- Bohemians 1905 – 1.FC Slovacko · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 47.3%
✅ won
Medium
- Auxerre – Nice · 1X · 1.50
- Nacional Madeira – FC Alverca · 1X · 1.50
- TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart · X2 · 1.55
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 29.2%
❌ lost
Riskier
- FC Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen · 1X · 2.10
- Athletic Bilbao – Elche CF · X2 · 2.80
- Lokomotiva ZG – HNK Rijeka · 1X · 2.50
total odds: 14.70 · announced probability of winning: 9.8%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:10 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Houston Astros | 2 · Houston Astros | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:2 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.55 | 61.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 13:9 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies | 2 · Philadelphia Phillies | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 12:2 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – Chicago White Sox | 2 · Chicago White Sox | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:6 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Inter Miami – Nashville SC | 12 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Texas Rangers | 1 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:6 | |
| 03:10 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | CF Monterrey – Tigres UANL | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.55 | 60.8% | 64.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:19 |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Los Angeles Galaxy – Seattle Sounders | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 05:15 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Cruz Azul – CF America | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:3 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Racing Santander – Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 1.33 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 14:45 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Slask Wroclaw – Korona Kielce | 1X | 1.50 | 62.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | AIK Stockholm – Vasteras SK | 12 | 1.30 | 72.5% | 77.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:4 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Bohemians 1905 – 1.FC Slovacko | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | 76.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | FC Zbrojovka Brno – SK Artis Brno | 12 | 1.23 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Genoa CFC – Frosinone | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Slovan Liberec – Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 1.23 | 76.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | 1.FSV Mainz – Eintracht Frankfurt | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07 | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 70.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | FC Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen | 12 | 1.30 | 76.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | SC Freiburg – Borussia Monchengladbach | 12 | 1.23 | 76.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:0 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart | X2 | 1.55 | 60.4% | 65.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest | 12 | 1.30 | 71.7% | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Bournemouth – Brentford FC | 1X | 1.45 | 64.9% | 69.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:2 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Chelsea FC – Hull City | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Crystal Palace – Ipswich Town | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Eyupspor – Caykur Rizespor | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Liverpool FC – Fulham | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | SK Beveren – St.Truidense VV | 12 | 1.30 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Samsunspor – Corum FK | 12 | 1.30 | 71.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:5 | |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | CA Osasuna – Espanyol | 12 | 1.35 | 70.0% | 75.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional Madeira – FC Alverca | 1X | 1.50 | 63.2% | 66.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:3 |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Twente Enschede – ADO Den Haag | over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | NK Osijek – Dinamo Zagreb | 12 | 1.25 | 79.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | SCR Altach – Grazer AK | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Strasbourg – AS Monaco | 1X | 1.70 | 55.5% | 60.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:1 |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Gornik Zabrze – Lech Poznan | 1X | 1.55 | 60.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | IFK Goteborg – Halmstads BK | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | Olympiacos Piraeus – OFI Kreta | 1 · Olympiacos Piraeus | 1.20 | 76.0% | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:1 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | SS Lazio – AC Milan | 1X | 1.75 | 57.1% | 60.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Sparta Prag – FK Jablonec | 12 | 1.23 | 76.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 18:15 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | KVC Westerlo – Standard Liege | 12 | 1.28 | 73.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:2 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | 1.FC Koln – Werder Bremen | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Athletic Bilbao – Elche CF | 12 | 1.20 | 79.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | FK Cukaricki Beograd – FK Novi Pazar | X2 | 1.60 | 57.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Tottenham – Everton | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Go Ahead Eagles – FC Groningen | 1X | 1.45 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Alanyaspor – Goztepe Izmir | X2 | 1.65 | 57.0% | 62.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia AC – FC Porto | 2 · FC Porto | 1.23 | 76.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:4 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Konyaspor – Trabzonspor | 12 | 1.28 | 73.1% | 77.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 11:7 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | Wolfsberger AC – Rapid Bec | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – NY Mets | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.55 | 61.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:12 | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes De La Plata – Platense | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard – Ajax Amsterdam | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | Lokomotiva ZG – HNK Rijeka | 12 | 1.25 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | PO Triglias – Atromitos Athinon | 1X | 1.47 | 62.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 20:15 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Zaglebie Lubin – GKS Katowice | 1X | 1.45 | 64.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 20:20 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Chicago Cubs | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | FK Radnicki Kragujevac – Mladost Lucani | 12 | 1.21 | 76.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | Atalanta BC – Cagliari | 12 | 1.23 | 76.1% | 81.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Auxerre – Nice | 1X | 1.50 | 63.2% | 67.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | FC Lorient – Toulouse FC | 12 | 1.33 | 70.5% | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Le Havre – Angers SCO | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 74.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | OH Leuven – Cercle Brugge | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Paris FC – Olympique Lyon | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Union St Gilloise – Lommel SK | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro – Fluminense RJ | 1X | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano | over 2.5 | 1.29 | 74.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | SC Cambuur – NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 1.20 | 78.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Sunderland – Arsenal FC | 12 | 1.30 | 77.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 21:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles | 1 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7:3 | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Academico De Viseu – Vitoria SC Guimarares | X2 | 1.28 | 73.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 22:00 | 🎾 US Open, WTA (finale) | Sabalenka Aryna – Rybakina Elena | 1 · Sabalenka Aryna | 1.75 | 57.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 22:05 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – San Diego Padres | 1 · San Francisco Giants | 2.30 | 41.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:7 | |
| 22:05 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – Los Angeles Angels | 2 · Los Angeles Angels | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:5 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Kansas City Royals | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:1 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:3 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Minnesota Twins | 1.90 | 50.0% | 46.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Atl.Tucuman – River Plate BA | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras SP – Sao Paulo SP | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanjolska La Liga | Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.10 | 86.8% |
| Grcka Super liga 1 | Olympiacos Piraeus – OFI Kreta | 1 | 1.20 | 76.0% |
| Engleska Premier League | Chelsea FC – Hull City | 1 | 1.20 | 77.5% |
| Belgija Pro Liga | Union St Gilloise – Lommel SK | 1 | 1.20 | 77.8% |
| Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia AC – FC Porto | 2 | 1.23 | 76.3% |
| Njemacka Bundesliga | Borussia Dortmund – SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 1.25 | 74.8% |
| Nizozemska Eredivisie | Twente Enschede – ADO Den Haag | 1 | 1.25 | 75.0% |