Probabilities & picks · 13 September 2026
105 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 74 of 99 settled picks correct (74.7%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- US Sassuolo – Juventus · 12 · 1.30
- Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid · 12 · 1.35
- FC Zlin – Hradec Kralove · 12 · 1.33
total odds: 2.33 · announced probability of winning: 42.7%
✅ won
Medium
- NY Yankees – NY Mets · 1 · NY Yankees · 1.55
- Partizan Beograd – FK Vojvodina Novi Sad · X2 · 1.50
- Boston Red Sox – Kansas City Royals · 1 · Boston Red Sox · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 27.8%
✅ won
Riskier
- US Lecce – AC Monza · 1 · US Lecce · 2.70
- Heerenveen – SC Telstar · X2 · 2.30
- SSC Napoli – Bologna FC · 1 · SSC Napoli · 1.90
total odds: 11.80 · announced probability of winning: 10.9%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente – San Lorenzo De Almagro | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 00:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps – Austin FC | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:20 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:6 | |
| 02:20 | 🏈 NFL | NY Giants – Dallas Cowboys | 1 · NY Giants | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 28:20 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Huracan – RC Avellaneda | under 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Club Santos Laguna – FC Juarez | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ SAD MLS | San Diego FC – Philadelphia Union | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:5 | |
| 03:07 | ⚽ Meksiko Liga MX | Guadalajara Chivas – Pumas UNAM | 12 | 1.20 | 78.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 12:15 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Excelsior Rotterdam – FC Utrecht | X2 | 1.70 | 55.8% | 60.6% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 12:15 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Wisla Plock – Cracovia Krakow | 1X | 1.45 | 64.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 13:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Banik Ostrava – FK Pardubice | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 13:30 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Club Brugge – Royal Antwerpen | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Celta Vigo – Malaga CF | 12 | 1.28 | 74.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Svicarska Super liga | FC Zurich – FC Vaduz | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | Hammarby IF – IF Brommapojkarna | over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | IF Elfsborg – Kalmar FF | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 78.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | Lyngby BK – SonderjyskE | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | Silkeborg IF – Viborg FF | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | Austria Bec – Austria Lustenau | 12 | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | Heerenveen – SC Telstar | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Norveska Eliteserien | Viking FK – Kristiansund BK | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | WSG Tirol – TSV Hartberg | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 14:45 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin – Wieczysta Krakow | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Coventry City – Brighton | X2 | 1.25 | 74.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:5 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | FC Zlin – Hradec Kralove | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 74.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Lille OSC – Troyes | 1 · Lille OSC | 1.40 | 66.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | US Lecce – AC Monza | 12 | 1.35 | 69.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | Viktoria Plzen – Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 1.23 | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka Bundesliga | RB Leipzig – Hamburger SV | over 2.5 | 1.29 | 74.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | FK Radnicki Nis – OFK Beograd | X2 | 1.62 | 57.3% | 60.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:1 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Genclerbirligi SK – Kasimpasa | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | KRC Genk – KAA Gent | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | Randers FC – Odense BK | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Levante UD – FC Barcelona | over 2.5 | 1.25 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Svicarska Super liga | FC Lausanne – Servette FC | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Svicarska Super liga | FC Luzern – FC Basel | 12 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:4 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Svedska Allsvenskan | Malmo FF – Orgryte IS | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:45 | ⚽ Nizozemska Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle – Feyenoord | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Norveska Eliteserien | Ham Kam – Molde FK | 12 | 1.23 | 76.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:5 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Norveska Eliteserien | IK Start – SK Brann | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | Istra 1961 Pula – NK Rudes | 12 | 1.20 | 78.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Norveska Eliteserien | KFUM Oslo – Aalesunds FK | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | PS Kalamata – Volos FC | 12 | 1.30 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | Partizan Beograd – FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | X2 | 1.50 | 61.1% | 64.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Austrija Bundesliga | Sturm Graz – LASK Linz | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Le Mans – Lens | 12 | 1.23 | 77.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Poljska Ekstraklasa | Legia Warszawa – KS Widzew Lodz | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | 78.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Engleska Premier League | Manchester Utd – Manchester City | 12 | 1.35 | 74.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | Asteras Tripolis – AEK Atena | 2 · AEK Atena | 1.35 | 67.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Danska Superliga | FC Nordsjaelland – AGF Aarhus | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Ceska 1. liga | FK Teplice – Slavia Prag | 2 · Slavia Prag | 1.60 | 57.4% | 62.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | SSC Napoli – Bologna FC | 12 | 1.28 | 73.0% | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 18:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.65 | 57.7% | 62.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:1 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Getafe CF – Deportivo La Coruna | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | Zulte Waregem – Royal Charleroi | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Amed SFK – Istanbul Basaksehir | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica Lisabon – Gil Vicente | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Carolina Panthers – Chicago Bears | 1 · Carolina Panthers | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 37:59 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Cincinnati Bengals – Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 · Cincinnati Bengals | 1.47 | 64.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 33:27 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Detroit Lions – New Orleans Saints | 1 · Detroit Lions | 1.32 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 31:30 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Arouca – CD Santa Clara | 12 | 1.35 | 69.8% | 74.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Srbija Superliga | FK IMT Novi Beograd – Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 2 · Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 1.30 | 70.4% | 65.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska Super liga | Galatasaray SK – Kocaelispor | 1 · Galatasaray SK | 1.25 | 74.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Houston Texans – Buffalo Bills | 1 · Houston Texans | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 31:36 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Indianapolis Colts – Baltimore Ravens | 2 · Baltimore Ravens | 1.60 | 60.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 23:41 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars – Cleveland Browns | 1 · Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.20 | 79.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 34:10 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Pittsburgh Steelers – Atlanta Falcons | 1 · Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.35 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 20:13 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Tennessee Titans – NY Jets | 1 · Tennessee Titans | 1.85 | 51.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 10:23 | |
| 19:15 | ⚽ Norveska Eliteserien | Fredrikstad FK – Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 19:15 | ⚽ Belgija Pro Liga | RAAL La Louviere – KV Kortrijk | 12 | 1.33 | 71.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Izrael Premier League | Hapoel Petah Tikva – Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1X | 2.35 | 39.2% | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:2 |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:9 | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – NY Mets | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.55 | 62.2% | 67.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Washington Nationals | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:5 | |
| 19:37 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles | 1 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.65 | 57.7% | 62.7% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:1 |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 · Miami Marlins | 2.25 | 42.3% | 46.0% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:4 |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Houston Astros | 2 · Houston Astros | 2.15 | 44.2% | 48.9% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 14:4 |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Sarmiento – CA Belgrano | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre – Rosario Central | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | AE Kifisia – APO Levadiakos | X2 | 1.55 | 59.4% | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:0 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska SHNL | Hajduk Split – Slaven Belupo | 12 | 1.20 | 83.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | PAOK Solun – Aris Solun | 12 | 1.20 | 77.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 20:00 | 🎾 US Open, ATP (finale) | Zverev Alexander – Shelton Ben | 1 · Zverev Alexander | 1.70 | 59.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.50 | 63.9% | 54.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:4 |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – Cleveland Guardians | 2 · Cleveland Guardians | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:9 | |
| 20:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – Chicago White Sox | 1 · St. Louis Cardinals | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 20:20 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:4 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Grcka Super liga 1 | Panathinaikos – Panaitolikos Agrinio | 1 · Panathinaikos | 1.25 | 72.9% | 67.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska Ligue 1 | Brest – Paris SG | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 70.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija Serie A | US Sassuolo – Juventus | 12 | 1.30 | 76.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Brazil Serie A | Mirassol SP – EC Vitoria BA | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska La Liga | Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid | 12 | 1.35 | 74.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 21:05 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Kansas City Royals | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.55 | 61.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Famalicao – Sporting Lisabon | 12 | 1.20 | 78.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina Liga Profesional | Argentinos Juniors – Gimnasia La Plata | 12 | 1.26 | 72.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 22:05 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.70 | 56.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 8:7 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Texas Rangers | 2 · Texas Rangers | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:7 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Las Vegas Raiders – Miami Dolphins | 1 · Las Vegas Raiders | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 27:13 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Los Angeles Chargers – Arizona Cardinals | 1 · Los Angeles Chargers | 1.21 | 78.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 14:26 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Minnesota Vikings – Green Bay Packers | 1 · Minnesota Vikings | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 39:22 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Philadelphia Eagles – Washington Commanders | 1 · Philadelphia Eagles | 1.40 | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 24:22 | |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Brazil Serie A | Flamengo RJ – Corinthians SP | 1 · Flamengo RJ | 1.23 | 76.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ SAD MLS | Chicago Fire – New England Revolution | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica Lisabon – Gil Vicente | 1 | 1.13 | 82.3% |
| Spanjolska La Liga | Levante UD – FC Barcelona | 2 | 1.15 | 81.4% |
| Nizozemska Eredivisie | PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Njemacka Bundesliga | Elversberg 07 – Bayern Munchen | 2 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Svedska Allsvenskan | Hammarby IF – IF Brommapojkarna | 1 | 1.18 | 79.5% |
| NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars – Cleveland Browns | 1 | 1.20 | 79.3% |
| NFL | Los Angeles Chargers – Arizona Cardinals | 1 | 1.21 | 78.4% |
| Belgija Pro Liga | Club Brugge – Royal Antwerpen | 1 | 1.23 | 76.0% |
| Brazil Serie A | Flamengo RJ – Corinthians SP | 1 | 1.23 | 76.1% |
| Francuska Ligue 1 | Brest – Paris SG | 2 | 1.25 | 74.7% |
| Grcka Super liga 1 | Panathinaikos – Panaitolikos Agrinio | 1 | 1.25 | 72.9% |
| Turska Super liga | Galatasaray SK – Kocaelispor | 1 | 1.25 | 74.7% |
| SAD MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps – Austin FC | 1 | 1.28 | 73.4% |