Probabilities & picks · 14 September 2026
51 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 27 of 42 settled picks correct (64.3%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Torino FC – AS Roma · 12 · 1.30
- HNK Gorica – NK Varaždin · 12 · 1.40
- Leeds – Newcastle · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.46 · announced probability of winning: 45.3%
❌ lost
Medium
- Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres · 2 · San Diego Padres · 1.50
- Kalieva Elvina – Day Kayla · 2 · Day Kayla · 1.55
- Brace Cadence – Sierra Solana · 2 · Sierra Solana · 1.50
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 27.9%
✅ won
Riskier
- HNK Gorica – NK Varaždin · 2 · NK Varaždin · 2.25
- Rio Ave FC – Estrela Amadora · 1 · Rio Ave FC · 2.65
- Djurgardens IF – GAIS Goteborg · X2 · 2.45
total odds: 14.61 · announced probability of winning: 8.8%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Banfield – Barracas Central | 1X | 1.30 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Deportivo Riestra – Atletico Lanus | 1X | 1.45 | 63.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:3 | |
| 00:05 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Molynes – Treasure Beach FC | X2 | 1.75 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:2 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.42 | 66.7% | 71.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:4 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox | 2 · Chicago White Sox | 2.25 | 42.3% | 46.4% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:7 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Bahia BA – Clube Do Remo PA | 1 · Bahia BA | 1.40 | 65.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Sonmez Zeynep – Shymanovich Iryna | 1 · Sonmez Zeynep | 1.32 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 01:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Detroit Tigers | 2 · Detroit Tigers | 2.15 | 44.9% | 49.1% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:6 |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Baltimore Orioles | 2 · Baltimore Orioles | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Atlanta Braves | 2 · Atlanta Braves | 2.10 | 45.5% | 49.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:3 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – NY Yankees | 2 · NY Yankees | 1.80 | 52.6% | 55.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:8 |
| 01:45 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – San Francisco Giants | 2 · San Francisco Giants | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Jacquemot Elsa – Samsonova Liudmila | 2 · Samsonova Liudmila | 1.24 | 76.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 02:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Instituto Cordoba – Estudiantes RC | 1 · Instituto Cordoba | 1.40 | 64.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos | 1 · Kansas City Chiefs | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 31:10 | |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.50 | 63.9% | 68.9% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7:8 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | America Cali – AD Pasto | 1 · America Cali | 1.40 | 64.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Club Leon – Atletico San Luis | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Jamajka - PREMIER LEAGUE | Racing Utd – Arnett Gardens | X2 | 1.50 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:2 | |
| 03:38 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Seattle Mariners | 1 · Los Angeles Angels | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:4 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Miami Marlins | 2 · Miami Marlins | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 8:7 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska - VEIKKAUSLIIGA | Inter Turku – Vaasa PS | 12 | 1.25 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Universitatea Cluj – Otelul Galati | X2 | 2.25 | 41.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:0 | |
| 18:00 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Bouzas Maneiro Jessica – Salkova Dominika | 1 · Bouzas Maneiro Jessica | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SHNL | HNK Gorica – NK Varaždin | 2 · NK Varaždin | 2.25 | 44.4% | 50.2% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:2 |
| 18:00 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Riera Julia – Avanesyan Elina | 1 · Riera Julia | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Como 1907 – Parma | 1 · Como 1907 | 1.20 | 77.8% | 72.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:1 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Torino FC – AS Roma | 12 | 1.30 | 76.6% | 80.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Švedska - ALLSVENSKAN | Djurgardens IF – GAIS Goteborg | X2 | 2.45 | 38.4% | 43.7% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska - SUPER LIGA | Gaziantep FK – Fenerbahce Istanbul | 2 · Fenerbahce Istanbul | 1.45 | 64.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Švedska - ALLSVENSKAN | IK Sirius – Degerfors IF | 1 · IK Sirius | 1.40 | 66.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Radomiak Radom – GKS Piast Gliwice | 1X | 1.45 | 65.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 19:00 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | You Xiaodi – Charaeva Alina | 2 · Charaeva Alina | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:10 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Brace Cadence – Sierra Solana | 2 · Sierra Solana | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | Rio Ave FC – Estrela Amadora | 1 · Rio Ave FC | 2.65 | 34.8% | 40.5% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:3 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | FCSB Bukurešt – Petrolul Ploiesti | 1 · FCSB Bukurešt | 1.40 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 20:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Kalieva Elvina – Day Kayla | 2 · Day Kayla | 1.55 | 64.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 20:10 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Ortenzi Jazmin – Paquet Chloe | 2 · Paquet Chloe | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Inter Milano – Udinese | 1 · Inter Milano | 1.20 | 77.8% | 72.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:3 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Leeds – Newcastle | X2 | 1.70 | 58.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:1 | |
| 21:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Monnet Carole – Stephens Sloane | 2 · Stephens Sloane | 1.21 | 78.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Španjolska - LA LIGA | Villarreal – Real Betis | X2 | 1.85 | 51.0% | 55.9% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 21:10 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Maria Tatjana – Townsend Taylor | 2 · Townsend Taylor | 1.32 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | Moreirense FC – Maritimo Madeira | 12 | 1.35 | 69.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Island - URVALSDEILD | Vikingur Reykjavik – Keflavik IF | 1 · Vikingur Reykjavik | 1.22 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 21:45 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | SC Braga – GD Estoril Praia | 1 · SC Braga | 1.35 | 69.2% | 66.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 22:10 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Zarazua Renata – Dolehide Caroline | 1 · Zarazua Renata | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 23:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Frech Magdalena – Hibino Nao | 1 · Frech Magdalena | 1.21 | 78.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norveška - ELITESERIEN | Bodø/Glimt – Sandefjord | 1 | 1.10 | 84.8% |
| WTA SAO PAULO | Semenistaja Darja – Badosa Paula | 2 | 1.10 | 86.7% |
| WTA SAO PAULO | Lamens Suzan – Alves Carolina | 1 | 1.13 | 84.2% |
| Italija - SERIE A | Como 1907 – Parma | 1 | 1.20 | 77.8% |
| Italija - SERIE A | Inter Milano – Udinese | 1 | 1.20 | 77.8% |
| WTA GUADALAJARA | Monnet Carole – Stephens Sloane | 2 | 1.21 | 78.8% |
| WTA GUADALAJARA | Frech Magdalena – Hibino Nao | 1 | 1.21 | 78.8% |
| Island - URVALSDEILD | Vikingur Reykjavik – Keflavik IF | 1 | 1.22 | 76.2% |
| WTA GUADALAJARA | Jacquemot Elsa – Samsonova Liudmila | 2 | 1.24 | 76.8% |
| WTA SAO PAULO | Bouzas Maneiro Jessica – Salkova Dominika | 1 | 1.27 | 75.0% |