Probabilities & picks · 15 September 2026
52 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 28 of 45 settled picks correct (62.2%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol · 12 · 1.35
- Ironi Tiberias – Hapoel Jerusalem · 12 · 1.30
- Deportivo Alaves – Valencia CF · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.37 · announced probability of winning: 41.9%
❌ lost
Medium
- Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres · 2 · San Diego Padres · 1.50
- Minnesota Twins – NY Yankees · 2 · NY Yankees · 1.55
- Beitar Jerusalem – Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1 · Beitar Jerusalem · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 29.0%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol · 1 · Rayo Vallecano · 2.40
- Deportivo Alaves – Valencia CF · X2 · 2.20
- Motherwell – Aberdeen · 1 · Motherwell · 1.85
total odds: 9.77 · announced probability of winning: 14.1%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Carabobo FC – Deportivo La Guaira | 1X | 1.24 | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne - COPA LIBERTADORES | Platense – Fluminense RJ | 12 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne - COPA SUDAMERICANA | Vasco Da Gama RJ – Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 1.20 | 77.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Deportivo Tachira – Academia Puerto Cabello | 1X | 1.30 | 71.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox | 2 · Chicago White Sox | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:6 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Parry Diane – Stearns Peyton | 1 · Parry Diane | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 01:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Detroit Tigers | 1 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:10 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Baltimore Orioles | 2 · Baltimore Orioles | 2.10 | 45.5% | 49.1% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:7 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | UCV FC – Academia Anzoategui FC | 12 | 1.20 | 77.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Atlanta Braves | 2 · Atlanta Braves | 2.15 | 44.2% | 49.1% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:6 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – NY Yankees | 2 · NY Yankees | 1.55 | 61.3% | 66.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:8 |
| 01:45 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – San Francisco Giants | 1 · St. Louis Cardinals | 1.60 | 59.5% | 63.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:10 |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Kansas City Royals | 2 · Kansas City Royals | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4:2 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Stephens Sloane – Tjen Janice | 1 · Stephens Sloane | 2.25 | 41.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Boyaca Chico – Alianza FC Valledupar | 12 | 1.35 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Medunarodne - COPA SUDAMERICANA | Sao Paulo SP – Boca Juniors | 1X | 1.33 | 71.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.50 | 63.0% | 68.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 9:3 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Puebla – Deportivo Toluca | 12 | 1.20 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 03:38 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.60 | 60.0% | 64.5% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Miami Marlins | 1 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.65 | 57.7% | 60.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:4 |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Semenistaja Darja – Kinoshita Hayu | 1 · Semenistaja Darja | 1.55 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Stefanini Lucrezia – Podoroska Nadia | 1 · Stefanini Lucrezia | 1.45 | 65.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 16:40 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Riera Julia – Avanesyan Elina | 1 · Riera Julia | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 16:40 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | You Xiaodi – Charaeva Alina | 2 · Charaeva Alina | 1.40 | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:50 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Bouzas Maneiro Jessica – Salkova Dominika | 1 · Bouzas Maneiro Jessica | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:50 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Brace Cadence – Sierra Solana | 2 · Sierra Solana | 1.47 | 63.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Rakow Czestochowa – Zaglebie Lubin | X2 | 1.90 | 49.6% | 53.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Latvija - VIRSLIGA | Super Nova – Riga FC | 2 · Riga FC | 1.23 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Izrael - PREMIER LEAGUE | Ironi Tiberias – Hapoel Jerusalem | 1 · Ironi Tiberias | 2.70 | 33.9% | 40.9% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:2 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Izrael - PREMIER LEAGUE | Beitar Jerusalem – Maccabi Petah Tikva | 1 · Beitar Jerusalem | 1.55 | 58.7% | 64.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:1 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Švicarska - SUPER LIGA | Grasshoppers – FC Sion | 12 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:5 | |
| 19:00 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Ortenzi Jazmin – Paquet Chloe | 2 · Paquet Chloe | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Španjolska - LA LIGA | Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol | 1 · Rayo Vallecano | 2.40 | 41.4% | 48.8% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:1 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Španjolska - LA LIGA | Deportivo Alaves – Valencia CF | X2 | 2.20 | 44.8% | 49.6% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 20:10 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Blinkova Anna – Lee Carol Young Suh | 1 · Blinkova Anna | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Korona Kielce – Gornik Zabrze | X2 | 1.45 | 64.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Ballymena Utd – Carrick Rangers | X2 | 1.50 | 61.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Crusaders FC – Dungannon Swifts | X2 | 1.28 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3:0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Škotska - PREMIERSHIP | Falkirk – Hearts | 2 · Hearts | 1.85 | 50.0% | 56.1% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Glentoran FC – Coleraine | 12 | 1.26 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Škotska - PREMIERSHIP | Hibernian – Kilmarnock | 1 · Hibernian | 1.40 | 65.8% | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Larne FC – Cliftonville | X2 | 2.10 | 44.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Limavady Utd – Bangor FC | 1X | 1.23 | 74.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Škotska - PREMIERSHIP | Motherwell – Aberdeen | 1 · Motherwell | 1.85 | 50.3% | 58.2% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:4 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Portadown – Linfield | 2 · Linfield | 1.40 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 21:00 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Bucsa Cristina – Udvardy Panna | 1 · Bucsa Cristina | 1.42 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Cdt Real Oruro – Real Potosi | 12 | 1.28 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Island - URVALSDEILD | Fram Reykjavik – Breidablik Kopavogur | 1X | 1.22 | 77.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:3 | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Španjolska - LA LIGA | Elche CF – Real Madrid | 2 · Real Madrid | 1.20 | 77.4% | 69.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:3 |
| 22:10 | 🎾 WTA GUADALAJARA | Parks Alycia – Bejlek Sara | 2 · Bejlek Sara | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 23:15 | ⚽ Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Academia Del Balompie Boliviano – The Strongest | 12 | 1.25 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | Ajax Amsterdam – Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 1.15 | 81.6% |
| Španjolska - LA LIGA | Elche CF – Real Madrid | 2 | 1.20 | 77.4% |
| Latvija - VIRSLIGA | Super Nova – Riga FC | 2 | 1.23 | 75.9% |