Probabilities & picks · 16 September 2026
65 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 46 of 61 settled picks correct (75.4%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Hapoel Beer Sheva – Dinamo Zagreb · X2 · 1.30
- Levante UD – Athletic Bilbao · 12 · 1.30
- AIK Stockholm – Mjallby AIF · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 40.5%
❌ lost
Medium
- Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox · 1 · Cleveland Guardians · 1.55
- Tampa Bay Rays – Oakland Athletics · 1 · Tampa Bay Rays · 1.50
- Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar · 1 · Sunderland · 1.55
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 28.2%
✅ won
Riskier
- Houston Astros – Kansas City Royals · 2 · Kansas City Royals · 2.20
- NY Mets – Baltimore Orioles · 2 · Baltimore Orioles · 2.20
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Miami Marlins · 2 · Miami Marlins · 2.10
total odds: 10.16 · announced probability of winning: 11.0%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - COPA SUDAMERICANA | Atletico Mineiro – Santos SP | 12 | 1.28 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:2 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - COPA LIBERTADORES | LDU Quito – Palmeiras SP | 1X | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Monagas SC – Zamora FC | 1X | 1.28 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 00:00 | ⚽ Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Nacional Potosi – Always Ready | X2 | 1.40 | 66.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:4 | |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Botafogo RJ – Gremio FBPA RS | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | 78.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.47 | 65.2% | 70.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6:2 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – Milwaukee Brewers | 2 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.70 | 55.8% | 60.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:5 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.50 | 63.0% | 66.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:3 |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – Philadelphia Phillies | 2 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 01:00 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Kostyuk Marta – Townsend Taylor | 1 · Kostyuk Marta | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Trujillanos – Rayo Zuliano | 1X | 1.21 | 76.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:4 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Baltimore Orioles | 2 · Baltimore Orioles | 2.20 | 43.6% | 46.9% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:7 |
| 01:15 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CD Once Caldas – CD Tolima | 12 | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Metropolitanos FC – Caracas FC | 1X | 1.30 | 71.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Chicago Cubs | 1.70 | 56.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:4 | |
| 02:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Boston Red Sox | 2 · Boston Red Sox | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:3 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Day Kayla – Samsonova Liudmila | 2 · Samsonova Liudmila | 1.45 | 68.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Kansas City Royals | 2 · Kansas City Royals | 2.20 | 43.6% | 48.6% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:5 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Blooming – Universitario De Vinto | 1 · Blooming | 1.50 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - COPA LIBERTADORES | Corinthians SP – Estudiantes De La Plata | 1X | 1.20 | 77.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 | |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.60 | 60.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:9 | |
| 03:20 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Internacional De Bogota – Atletico Nacional Medellin | X2 | 1.21 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:3 | |
| 03:38 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Seattle Mariners | 1 · Los Angeles Angels | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:7 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – Miami Marlins | 2 · Miami Marlins | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:4 | |
| 12:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | FC Seoul – Persib Bandung | 1X | 1.22 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 | |
| 12:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA ELITE | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors – Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 1.30 | 71.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 14:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA ELITE | Port FC – Vissel Kobe | 12 | 1.20 | 78.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 14:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | The Cong Viettel – Melbourne Victory | 12 | 1.22 | 76.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Bandecchi Susan – Hruncakova Viktoria | 1 · Bandecchi Susan | 1.55 | 59.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 16:00 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Osuigwe Whitney – Quevedo Kaitlin | 2 · Quevedo Kaitlin | 1.42 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:40 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Rinaldo Persson Kajsa – Pigato Lisa | 2 · Pigato Lisa | 1.42 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 17:10 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Stoiana Mary – Liu Claire | 1 · Stoiana Mary | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Hussein Irbid – SC East Bengal | 12 | 1.20 | 77.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Khalidiyah SC – FC Nasaf | 1X | 1.26 | 72.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Nahda – Al Taawoun FC | X2 | 1.25 | 73.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Wahda FC – Al Kuwait SC | 1 · Al Wahda FC | 1.35 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:2 | |
| 18:00 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Leme Da Silva Nauhany Vitoria – Sharma Astra | 2 · Sharma Astra | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Bugarska - PARVA LIGA | Lokomotiv Sofia – PFC CSKA Sofia | 12 | 1.20 | 78.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | AC Omonia Nicosia – Celta Vigo | 12 | 1.30 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Ararat Armenija – Sparta Prag | 12 | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:4 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska - ALLSVENSKAN | AIK Stockholm – Mjallby AIF | 12 | 1.30 | 73.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Atletico Madrid – CA Osasuna | 1 · Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 69.2% | 64.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4:0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Deportivo La Coruna – Sevilla FC | 1X | 1.40 | 66.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svicarska - SUPER LIGA | FC Lugano – FC St. Gallen 1879 | 12 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svicarska - SUPER LIGA | FC Thun – Servette FC | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:4 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.55 | 61.3% | 66.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:3 |
| 19:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – San Francisco Giants | 2 · San Francisco Giants | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:6 | |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – NY Yankees | 2 · NY Yankees | 1.70 | 56.4% | 61.4% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:4 |
| 20:00 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Semenistaja Darja – Kostovic Teodora | 2 · Kostovic Teodora | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 20:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Rayyan SC – Al Faisaly | 1 · Al Rayyan SC | 1.35 | 67.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:3 | |
| 20:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Al Shorta SC – Al Seeb | 1X | 1.22 | 75.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | AC Milan – Benfica Lisabon | 1X | 1.45 | 69.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Anderlecht – Olympique Lyon | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Bayer Leverkusen – NK Celje | over 3.5 | 1.57 | 60.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Frech Magdalena – Dolehide Caroline | 1 · Frech Magdalena | 1.45 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Guabira Montero – Club Aurora | 12 | 1.24 | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Hapoel Beer Sheva – Dinamo Zagreb | X2 | 1.30 | 75.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Olympiacos Piraeus – Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 · Olympiacos Piraeus | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Sturm Graz – Rennes | X2 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar | 1 · Sunderland | 1.55 | 64.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 21:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Detroit Tigers | 2 · Detroit Tigers | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5:1 | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | FC Barcelona – Racing Santander | over 3.5 | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Levante UD – Athletic Bilbao | 1X | 1.65 | 57.0% | 61.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:10 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Sonmez Zeynep – Jovic Iva | 2 · Jovic Iva | 1.21 | 78.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Venezuela - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Portuguesa FC – Estudiantes De Merida | 1X | 1.33 | 68.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanjolska - LA LIGA | FC Barcelona – Racing Santander | 1 | 1.05 | 88.9% |
| Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Bayer Leverkusen – NK Celje | 1 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| WTA Guadalajara | Sonmez Zeynep – Jovic Iva | 2 | 1.21 | 78.8% |