Probabilities & picks · 17 September 2026
51 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 34 of 46 settled picks correct (73.9%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Real Betis – Getafe CF · 12 · 1.35
- Besiktas – Olympique Marseille · 1X · 1.30
- Tampa Bay Rays – Oakland Athletics · 1 · Tampa Bay Rays · 1.37
total odds: 2.40 · announced probability of winning: 44.6%
✅ won
Medium
- Cincinnati Reds – Los Angeles Dodgers · 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers · 1.60
- Bucsa Cristina – Bejlek Sara · 2 · Bejlek Sara · 1.55
- Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres · 2 · San Diego Padres · 1.60
total odds: 3.97 · announced probability of winning: 27.2%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Los Angeles Angels – Minnesota Twins · 1 · Los Angeles Angels · 2.10
- Real Sociedad – Bournemouth · 2 · Bournemouth · 2.40
- Celtic Glasgow – Ferencvaros · X2 · 2.10
total odds: 10.58 · announced probability of winning: 9.2%
✅ won
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Kostyuk Marta – Samsonova Liudmila | 1 · Kostyuk Marta | 1.26 | 75.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Kansas City Royals | 2 · Kansas City Royals | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 6:2 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Philadelphia Phillies | 1 · NY Mets | 1.70 | 55.8% | 60.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:3 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Detroit Tigers | 2 · Detroit Tigers | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3:1 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CA Bucaramanga – Independiente Medellin | 1X | 1.30 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 | |
| 02:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Boston Red Sox | 2 · Boston Red Sox | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:4 | |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | Buffalo Bills – Detroit Lions | 1 · Buffalo Bills | 1.42 | 66.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 41:31 | |
| 02:15 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Stearns Peyton – Stephens Sloane | 1 · Stearns Peyton | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - COPA LIBERTADORES | Flamengo RJ – Independiente Del Valle | 1 · Flamengo RJ | 1.33 | 69.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - COPA SUDAMERICANA | Montevideo City Torque – CS Cienciano | 12 | 1.20 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 03:38 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Minnesota Twins | 1 · Los Angeles Angels | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:4 | |
| 12:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Adelaide Utd – Tai Po FC | 1 · Adelaide Utd | 1.23 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:0 | |
| 12:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Lion City Sailors – Pathum Utd | 1X | 1.30 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:1 | |
| 14:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Noha Akugue Noma – Rapolu Malaika | 2 · Rapolu Malaika | 2.00 | 45.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 14:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Kitchee SC – Gangwon FC | X2 | 1.50 | 61.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 14:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Phnom Penh Crown – Kuching FA | 12 | 1.30 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 14:15 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Shanghai Shenhua – Tampines Rovers | 1 · Shanghai Shenhua | 1.30 | 69.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 15:15 | ⚽ Rusija - PREMIER LEAGUE | FC Orenburg – FC Krasnodar | X2 | 1.21 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:0 | |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Jorge Francisca – Jimenez Kasintseva Victoria | 1 · Jorge Francisca | 2.10 | 44.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 16:40 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Koevermans Anouk – Knutson Gabriela | 1 · Koevermans Anouk | 1.85 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 17:00 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Avanesyan Elina – Charaeva Alina | 1 · Avanesyan Elina | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Tunis - LIGUE 1 | Stade Tunisien – Africain | X2 | 1.37 | 66.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:10 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Lamens Suzan – Sierra Solana | 1 · Lamens Suzan | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Rusija - PREMIER LEAGUE | FK Akron Tolyatti – Akhmat Grozny | X2 | 1.35 | 68.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:0 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Rusija - PREMIER LEAGUE | FK Rostov – Dinamo Moskva | X2 | 1.33 | 69.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Gruzija - EROVNULI LIGA | FC Iberia 1999 – FC Dila Gori | 12 | 1.28 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Estonija - PREMIUM LIIGA | Levadia Tallinn – Tartu Tammeka | 1 · Levadia Tallinn | 1.21 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6:0 | |
| 18:35 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – Milwaukee Brewers | 2 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:4 | |
| 18:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.60 | 60.0% | 65.0% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:8 |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | OFI Kreta – TSG Hoffenheim | 12 | 1.20 | 79.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | PFC Levski Sofia – Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 1.30 | 72.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Real Betis – Getafe CF | 12 | 1.35 | 73.4% | 78.2% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | US Biskra – CR Belouizdad | X2 | 1.20 | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.37 | 69.4% | 74.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 10:1 |
| 19:30 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Blinkova Anna – Valdmannova Vendula | 1 · Blinkova Anna | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Rusija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Dynamo Makhachkala – CSKA Moskva | 1X | 1.55 | 59.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:3 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Srbija - SUPERLIGA | Zeleznicar Pancevo – Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 2 · Crvena Zvezda Beograd | 1.40 | 65.1% | 60.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:2 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Besiktas – Olympique Marseille | 1X | 1.30 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:1 | |
| 21:00 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Bucsa Cristina – Bejlek Sara | 2 · Bejlek Sara | 1.55 | 64.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | CR Temouchent – Kabylie | X2 | 1.33 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Celtic Glasgow – Ferencvaros | 12 | 1.25 | 75.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan | 12 | 1.20 | 79.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Juventus – NEC Nijmegen | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Lillestrom SK – SCU Torreense | 12 | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Real Sociedad – Bournemouth | 12 | 1.35 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Viktoria Plzen – Union St Gilloise | 12 | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – San Diego Padres | 2 · San Diego Padres | 1.60 | 59.5% | 64.5% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:9 |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Malaga CF – Villarreal | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 22:10 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara | Frech Magdalena – Jovic Iva | 2 · Jovic Iva | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Machida Zelvia – Svay Rieng FC | 1 | 1.05 | 86.1% |
| Bolivija - DIVISION PROFESIONAL | Club Bolivar – GV CD San Jose De Oruro | 1 | 1.07 | 85.2% |
| Medunarodne Klubovi - UEFA EUROPSKA LIGA | Juventus – NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 1.20 | 79.4% |
| Estonija - PREMIUM LIIGA | Levadia Tallinn – Tartu Tammeka | 1 | 1.21 | 76.4% |
| Medunarodne Klubovi - AFC LIGA PRVAKA 2 | Adelaide Utd – Tai Po FC | 1 | 1.23 | 73.7% |
| WTA Guadalajara | Kostyuk Marta – Samsonova Liudmila | 1 | 1.26 | 75.6% |