Probabilities & picks · 18 September 2026
47 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 31 of 46 settled picks correct (67.4%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Kasimpasa – Konyaspor · 12 · 1.33
- Brentford FC – Chelsea FC · 12 · 1.35
- Espanyol – Elche CF · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.42 · announced probability of winning: 41.3%
❌ lost
Medium
- San Diego Padres – Miami Marlins · 1 · San Diego Padres · 1.50
- Cleveland Guardians – Oakland Athletics · 1 · Cleveland Guardians · 1.50
- New York City FC – NY Red Bulls · over 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 24.9%
❌ lost
Riskier
- AC Monza – US Sassuolo · 2 · US Sassuolo · 2.50
- FC Groningen – PEC Zwolle · X2 · 2.40
- Lyngby BK – Silkeborg IF · X2 · 1.85
total odds: 11.10 · announced probability of winning: 11.0%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Cincinnati Reds | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6:4 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – Kansas City Royals | 2 · Kansas City Royals | 2.55 | 37.0% | 40.4% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 8:5 |
| 01:00 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara (polufinale) | Bucsa Cristina – Jovic Iva | 2 · Jovic Iva | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Milwaukee Brewers | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 5:6 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5:3 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Boston Red Sox | 2 · Boston Red Sox | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:4 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Philadelphia Phillies | 2 · Philadelphia Phillies | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 6:3 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | New York City FC – NY Red Bulls | 12 | 1.25 | 75.5% | 79.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:1 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Detroit Tigers | 2 · Detroit Tigers | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:11 | |
| 02:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Toronto Blue Jays | 2 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.70 | 55.8% | 60.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7:1 |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.55 | 62.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4:5 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Houston Astros | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:6 | |
| 02:10 | 🎾 WTA Guadalajara (polufinale) | Samsonova Liudmila – Stearns Peyton | 1 · Samsonova Liudmila | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 02:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | RC Avellaneda – CA Sarmiento | 12 | 1.25 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 02:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – Washington Nationals | 2 · Washington Nationals | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:9 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Puebla – Atlante FC | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:1 | |
| 03:38 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Minnesota Twins | 2 · Minnesota Twins | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0:3 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – NY Yankees | 1 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 2.10 | 45.5% | 48.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:9 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Miami Marlins | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.50 | 63.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:2 | |
| 04:15 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – San Francisco Giants | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8:2 | |
| 05:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | FC Juarez – Tigres UANL | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 14:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Rapolu Malaika – Knutson Gabriela | 2 · Knutson Gabriela | 1.60 | 57.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:2 | |
| 14:45 | ⚽ Izrael - PREMIER LEAGUE | Hapoel Tel Aviv – Hapoel Petah Tikva | 1 · Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.30 | 69.8% | 64.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:0 |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Vandromme Jeline – Jorge Francisca | 1 · Vandromme Jeline | 1.26 | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 16:40 | 🎾 WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Bandecchi Susan – Pigato Lisa | 1 · Bandecchi Susan | 1.45 | 64.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1:2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | UTA Arad – Sepsi OSK | 1X | 1.22 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | KS Widzew Lodz – Wieczysta Krakow | 12 | 1.25 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2:2 | |
| 18:00 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Kostovic Teodora – Quevedo Kaitlin | 1 · Kostovic Teodora | 2.25 | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Albanija - KATEGORIA SUPERIORE | Vllaznia Skadar – Teuta | 1X | 1.26 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0:2 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska - SUPER LIGA | Kasimpasa – Konyaspor | 12 | 1.33 | 71.2% | 75.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0:0 |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Danska - SUPERLIGA | Lyngby BK – Silkeborg IF | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Norveska - ELITESERIEN | Sarpsborg 08 – KFUM Oslo | 12 | 1.20 | 78.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 19:10 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Blinkova Anna – Charaeva Alina | 1 · Blinkova Anna | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:0 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Austrija - BUNDESLIGA | Rapid Bec – WSG Tirol | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | FC Groningen – PEC Zwolle | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SHNL | NK Rudes – Slaven Belupo | X2 | 1.35 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:2 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Rapid Bukurest – Arges Pitesti | 12 | 1.22 | 75.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3:1 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Wisła Krakow – Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 1.23 | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | AC Monza – US Sassuolo | X2 | 1.45 | 64.5% | 68.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2:1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 1 | AS Monaco – Lens | 12 | 1.28 | 73.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija - PRO LIGA | KAA Gent – Standard Liege | 12 | 1.28 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Brentford FC – Chelsea FC | 1X | 1.65 | 60.2% | 65.1% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3:0 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Espanyol – Elche CF | 12 | 1.35 | 73.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1:3 | |
| 22:30 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Stoiana Mary – Badosa Paula | 2 · Badosa Paula | 1.42 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0:2 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Central Cordoba – Defensa Y Justicia | under 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 23:40 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo | Podoroska Nadia – Lamens Suzan | 1 · Podoroska Nadia | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2:1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Njemacka - BUNDESLIGA | Bayern Munchen – Union Berlin | 1 | 1.05 | 89.9% |
| WTA 125K Caldas da Rainha | Vandromme Jeline – Jorge Francisca | 1 | 1.26 | 74.1% |
| WTA Guadalajara (polufinale) | Bucsa Cristina – Jovic Iva | 2 | 1.27 | 75.0% |