Probabilities & picks · 20 September 2026
85 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 54 of 78 settled picks correct (69.2%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Gremio FBPA RS – Palmeiras SP · 12 · 1.30
- Nice – Lille OSC · 12 · 1.30
- Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid · 12 · 1.35
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 44.6%
❌ lost
Medium
- Valencia CF – Real Sociedad · 1X · 1.50
- Jagiellonia Białystok – Legia Warszawa · 1X · 1.50
- Parma – Genoa CFC · 1X · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 29.1%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Juventus – Atalanta BC · X2 · 2.25
- HNK Rijeka – Hajduk Split · X2 · 1.85
- Inter Miami – San Diego FC · X2 · 2.65
total odds: 11.03 · announced probability of winning: 11.7%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Inter Miami – San Diego FC | over 2.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 01:20 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Milwaukee Brewers | 2 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.47 | 64.7% | 69.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-3 |
| 02:20 | 🏈 NFL | Kansas City Chiefs – Indianapolis Colts | 1 · Kansas City Chiefs | 1.35 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 33-30 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA Singapur | Kasatkina Darja – Sasnovich Aliaksandra | 1 · Kasatkina Darja | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA Seoul | Tararudee Lanlana – Uchijima Moyuka | 1 · Tararudee Lanlana | 1.47 | 63.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA Seoul | Volynets Katie – Kalieva Elvina | 1 · Volynets Katie | 1.32 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 12:15 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | Feyenoord – FC Utrecht | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 12:30 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | AC Fiorentina – SSC Napoli | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | 76.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 13:00 | ⚽ Skotska - PREMIERSHIP | Celtic Glasgow – Glasgow Rangers | 12 | 1.28 | 72.8% | 76.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Danska - SUPERLIGA | Brondby IF – FC Kopenhagen | 12 | 1.28 | 72.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Svedska - ALLSVENSKAN | Djurgardens IF – IF Elfsborg | 12 | 1.20 | 78.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Getafe CF – Malaga CF | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | AZ Alkmaar – SC Telstar | over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | Twente Enschede – PSV Eindhoven | X2 | 1.45 | 65.2% | 70.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 1 | Auxerre – Brest | 1X | 1.60 | 58.5% | 63.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Bournemouth – Liverpool FC | 1X | 1.75 | 57.1% | 62.1% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-1 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Frosinone – Como 1907 | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Leeds – Crystal Palace | 12 | 1.25 | 75.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Manchester City – Sunderland | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 60.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Parma – Genoa CFC | 1X | 1.50 | 62.1% | 65.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - BUNDESLIGA | Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig | over 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Grcka - SUPER LIGA 1 | APO Levadiakos – Olympiacos Piraeus | 2 · Olympiacos Piraeus | 1.30 | 69.7% | 64.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Turska - SUPER LIGA | Fenerbahce Istanbul – Eyupspor | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Gremio FBPA RS – Palmeiras SP | 12 | 1.30 | 72.9% | 77.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 16:15 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid | 12 | 1.35 | 73.8% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | Estrela Amadora – Academico De Viseu | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Svicarska - SUPER LIGA | FC Basel – FC St. Gallen 1879 | 12 | 1.25 | 75.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | Vitoria SC Guimarares – Moreirense FC | 12 | 1.20 | 78.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 16:45 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | NEC Nijmegen – Go Ahead Eagles | 1X | 1.35 | 69.6% | 74.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SHNL | HNK Rijeka – Hajduk Split | 12 | 1.35 | 73.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Austrija - BUNDESLIGA | Red Bull Salzburg – Sturm Graz | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:15 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 1 | Nice – Lille OSC | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | 76.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Engleska - PREMIER LEAGUE | Fulham – Manchester Utd | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 62.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Jagiellonia Białystok – Legia Warszawa | 12 | 1.30 | 72.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 17:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - BUNDESLIGA | Schalke 04 – Elversberg 07 | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 63.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | Juventus – Atalanta BC | 12 | 1.35 | 73.4% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Ceska - 1. LIGA | Slavia Prag – Viktoria Plzen | 12 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 81.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Belgija - PRO LIGA | Club Brugge – KRC Genk | 12 | 1.20 | 78.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Deportivo La Coruna – Real Betis | 12 | 1.28 | 73.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Villarreal – Levante UD | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Atlanta Falcons – Carolina Panthers | 1 · Atlanta Falcons | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-34 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Baltimore Ravens – New Orleans Saints | 1 · Baltimore Ravens | 1.23 | 77.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 17-24 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | CD Santa Clara – SC Braga | 12 | 1.35 | 70.0% | 75.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Chicago Bears – Minnesota Vikings | 1 · Chicago Bears | 1.45 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-9 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | GD Estoril Praia – Casa Pia AC | 12 | 1.25 | 74.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Houston Texans – Cincinnati Bengals | 1 · Houston Texans | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 6-20 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | NY Jets – Green Bay Packers | 2 · Green Bay Packers | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 17-20 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | New England Patriots – Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 · New England Patriots | 1.40 | 67.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 20-3 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cleveland Browns | 1 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.24 | 76.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 19-23 | |
| 19:00 | 🏈 NFL | Tennessee Titans – Philadelphia Eagles | 2 · Philadelphia Eagles | 1.28 | 74.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 20-24 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | NY Mets – Philadelphia Phillies | 2 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-7 | |
| 19:15 | ⚽ Norveska - ELITESERIEN | SK Brann – Bodo/Glimt | 12 | 1.20 | 78.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Dinamo Bukurest – Farul Constanta | 12 | 1.21 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-0 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - BUNDESLIGA | SC Paderborn 07 – TSG Hoffenheim | 12 | 1.23 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – Kansas City Royals | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-3 | |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Cincinnati Reds | 2.25 | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-9 | |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Oakland Athletics | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.42 | 66.7% | 71.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 19:40 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – Boston Red Sox | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.65 | 57.1% | 61.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-1 |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | San Lorenzo De Almagro – Boca Juniors | 12 | 1.33 | 68.9% | 73.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SHNL | Dinamo Zagreb – Lokomotiva ZG | over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Detroit Tigers | 2 · Detroit Tigers | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 8-1 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Houston Astros – Atlanta Braves | 2 · Atlanta Braves | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-4 | |
| 20:15 | ⚾ MLB | St. Louis Cardinals – Washington Nationals | 1 · St. Louis Cardinals | 1.65 | 57.1% | 62.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-3 |
| 20:30 | 🎾 WTA Sao Paulo (finale) | Quevedo Kaitlin – Podoroska Nadia | 1 · Quevedo Kaitlin | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:35 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – Toronto Blue Jays | 2 · Toronto Blue Jays | 2.35 | 40.5% | 44.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-7 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE A | AC Milan – US Lecce | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 60.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 1 | Olympique Marseille – Paris SG | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 70.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Corinthians SP – Fluminense RJ | 12 | 1.35 | 69.6% | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | EC Vitoria BA – Cruzeiro MG | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Valencia CF – Real Sociedad | 1X | 1.50 | 63.2% | 67.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-3 |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – Seattle Mariners | 2 · Seattle Mariners | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 21:30 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | FC Porto – Benfica Lisabon | 1X | 1.55 | 60.6% | 65.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Platense – Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 1.33 | 69.3% | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Rosario Central – Argentinos Juniors | 12 | 1.33 | 69.4% | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 22:05 | 🏈 NFL | Denver Broncos – Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 · Denver Broncos | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 20-13 | |
| 22:05 | 🏈 NFL | Los Angeles Chargers – Las Vegas Raiders | 1 · Los Angeles Chargers | 1.32 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 14-26 | |
| 22:07 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Angels – Minnesota Twins | 1 · Los Angeles Angels | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-8 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks – NY Yankees | 1 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8-4 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – San Francisco Giants | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.37 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Miami Marlins | 2 · Miami Marlins | 2.15 | 44.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 7-3 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Arizona Cardinals – Seattle Seahawks | 2 · Seattle Seahawks | 1.47 | 64.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 7-31 | |
| 22:25 | 🏈 NFL | Dallas Cowboys – Washington Commanders | 1 · Dallas Cowboys | 1.47 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 37-20 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA Seoul | Yao Xinxin – Joint Maya | 2 | 1.06 | 90.1% |
| NFL | San Francisco 49ers – Miami Dolphins | 1 | 1.10 | 86.7% |
| Srbija - SUPERLIGA | Crvena Zvezda Beograd – FK Radnicki Nis | 1 | 1.15 | 79.4% |
| Hrvatska - SHNL | Dinamo Zagreb – Lokomotiva ZG | 1 | 1.20 | 78.8% |
| Turska - SUPER LIGA | Fenerbahce Istanbul – Eyupspor | 1 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| NFL | Baltimore Ravens – New Orleans Saints | 1 | 1.23 | 77.3% |
| NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cleveland Browns | 1 | 1.24 | 76.8% |
| Italija - SERIE A | AC Milan – US Lecce | 1 | 1.25 | 74.7% |
| Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | Feyenoord – FC Utrecht | 1 | 1.25 | 74.8% |
| Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | AZ Alkmaar – SC Telstar | 1 | 1.25 | 75.0% |
| NFL | Tennessee Titans – Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 1.28 | 74.3% |