Probabilities & picks · 21 September 2026
20 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 12 of 17 settled picks correct (70.6%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Petrolul Ploiesti – Csikszereda · 12 · 1.30
- Los Angeles Rams – NY Giants · 1 · Los Angeles Rams · 1.32
- Barracas Central – Independiente Rivadavia · X2 · 1.40
total odds: 2.40 · announced probability of winning: 37.9%
✅ won
Medium
- Otelul Galati – Corvinul Hunedoara · 1X · 1.50
- CA Aldosivi – Atl.Tucuman · 1X · 1.50
- Atletico Lanus – Estudiantes De La Plata · X2 · 1.65
total odds: 3.71 · announced probability of winning: 23.8%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Quevedo Kaitlin – Podoroska Nadia · 1 · Quevedo Kaitlin · 1.80
- San Francisco Giants – Minnesota Twins · 1 · San Francisco Giants · 2.00
- Detroit Tigers – Washington Nationals · 2 · Washington Nationals · 2.25
total odds: 8.10 · announced probability of winning: 11.4%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Barracas Central – Independiente Rivadavia | X2 | 1.40 | 71.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 00:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Toronto Blue Jays | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-3 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Washington Nationals | 2 · Washington Nationals | 2.25 | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 9-2 |
| 02:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Atletico Lanus – Estudiantes De La Plata | 1X | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 02:15 | 🏈 NFL | Los Angeles Rams – NY Giants | 1 · Los Angeles Rams | 1.32 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 28-6 |
| 03:45 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Minnesota Twins | 1 · San Francisco Giants | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-2 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Lys Eva – Ruse Elena Gabriela | 1 · Lys Eva | 2.20 | 42.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Preston Taylah – Sakatsume Himeno | 1 · Preston Taylah | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Wolff Vivian – Olijnikova Oleksandra | 2 · Olijnikova Oleksandra | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 13:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K PORTO | Koevermans Anouk – Akli Ayana | 1 · Koevermans Anouk | 1.47 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 13:40 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Hunter Storm – Garland Joanna | 1 · Hunter Storm | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 16:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K ANKARA | Mert Aysegul – Shinikova Isabella | 1 · Mert Aysegul | 2.00 | 45.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 16:00 | 🎾 WTA SAO PAULO | Quevedo Kaitlin – Podoroska Nadia | 1 · Quevedo Kaitlin | 1.80 | 55.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 17:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K PORTO | Bandecchi Susan – Dodin Oceane | 1 · Bandecchi Susan | 1.35 | 69.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Otelul Galati – Corvinul Hunedoara | X2 | 1.60 | 62.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Aldosivi – Atl.Tucuman | 12 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Petrolul Ploiesti – Csikszereda | 12 | 1.30 | 71.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA SINGAPUR | Okamura Kyoka – Fernandez Leylah Annie | 2 | 1.01 | 94.4% |
| WTA SEOUL | Park Sohyun – Montgomery Robin | 2 | 1.09 | 87.5% |
| WTA 125K PORTO | Cabrera Lizette – Kraus Sinja | 2 | 1.18 | 79.2% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Wolff Vivian – Olijnikova Oleksandra | 2 | 1.27 | 75.0% |