Probabilities & picks · 22 September 2026
37 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 14 of 30 settled picks correct (46.7%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Kuzmova Katarina – Buyukakcay Cagla · 1 · Kuzmova Katarina · 1.30
- Criciuma EC – Operario Ferroviario · 12 · 1.30
- Independiente Medellin – Jaguares De Cordoba · 1 · Independiente Medellin · 1.30
total odds: 2.20 · announced probability of winning: 35.1%
❌ lost
Medium
- Atlanta Braves – Cincinnati Reds · 1 · Atlanta Braves · 1.50
- Colorado Rockies – Arizona Diamondbacks · 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks · 1.50
- Rakhimova Kamilla – Volynets Katie · 2 · Volynets Katie · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 24.8%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Texas Rangers – NY Mets · 2 · NY Mets · 2.20
- Kansas City Royals – Chicago White Sox · 1 · Kansas City Royals · 2.00
- Olijnikova Oleksandra – Chwalinska Maja · 1 · Olijnikova Oleksandra · 2.35
total odds: 10.34 · announced probability of winning: 8.5%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Criciuma EC – Operario Ferroviario | 1X | 1.22 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 00:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Toronto Blue Jays | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Washington Nationals | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.65 | 58.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-3 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee Brewers | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-4 |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-3 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Independiente Medellin – Jaguares De Cordoba | 1 · Independiente Medellin | 1.30 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays (2. mec) | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-6 |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-4 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Miami Marlins | 1 · Chicago Cubs | 1.47 | 64.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-8 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 11-14 |
| 02:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – NY Mets | 2 · NY Mets | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-6 |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-7 |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Independiente Santa Fe – AD Cali | 1 · Independiente Santa Fe | 2.10 | 43.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-1 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Oakland Athletics | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 9-7 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Houston Astros | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-7 |
| 03:45 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Minnesota Twins | 1 · San Francisco Giants | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-3 |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – San Diego Padres | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 7-0 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Olijnikova Oleksandra – Chwalinska Maja | 1 · Olijnikova Oleksandra | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Parks Alycia – Fernandez Leylah Annie | 2 · Fernandez Leylah Annie | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Rakhimova Kamilla – Volynets Katie | 2 · Volynets Katie | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 13:40 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Sakkari Maria – Fruhvirtova Linda | 1 · Sakkari Maria | 1.22 | 77.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Sanat Mes Kerman – SaiPa FC | X2 | 1.26 | 69.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K PORTO | Andreeva Erika – Brantmeier Reese | 2 · Brantmeier Reese | 1.50 | 61.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 15:30 | 🎾 WTA 125K PORTO | Jimenez Kasintseva Victoria – Bains Naiktha | 1 · Jimenez Kasintseva Victoria | 1.37 | 67.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 16:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K ANKARA | Kuzmova Katarina – Buyukakcay Cagla | 1 · Kuzmova Katarina | 1.30 | 71.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA II | CSC Dumbravita – CSM Resita | 1X | 2.20 | 41.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Havadar SC – Besat Kermanshah | 1X | 1.28 | 68.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-3 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Iran - AZADEGAN LIGA | Naft Gachsaran – Ario Eslamshahr | 1X | 1.23 | 71.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-1 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | US Biskra – JS Saoura | 1 · US Biskra | 2.00 | 45.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 20:00 | 🎾 WTA 125K TOLENTINO | Ruggeri Jennifer – Grabher Julia | 2 · Grabher Julia | 1.37 | 67.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA B | Atletico FC Cali – Tigres FC | X2 | 1.40 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA 125K ANKARA | Sierra Solana – Dilek Deniz | 1 | 1.09 | 85.8% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Andreeva Mirra – Sasnovich Aliaksandra | 1 | 1.09 | 87.5% |
| Rumunjska - LIGA II | FCM Targu Mures – CS Dinamo Bukurest | 1 | 1.10 | 82.1% |
| WTA SEOUL | Tararudee Lanlana – Park Sohyun | 1 | 1.13 | 84.2% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Sakkari Maria – Fruhvirtova Linda | 1 | 1.22 | 77.9% |