Probabilities & picks · 23 September 2026
35 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 21 of 31 settled picks correct (67.7%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Seattle Sounders – Real Salt Lake · 1X · 1.30
- AD Tarma – CS Cienciano · 12 · 1.30
- Parks Alycia – Fernandez Leylah Annie · 2 · Fernandez Leylah Annie · 1.32
total odds: 2.23 · announced probability of winning: 40.3%
✅ won
Medium
- Bondar Anna – Charaeva Alina · 1 · Bondar Anna · 1.50
- Detroit Tigers – Washington Nationals · 1 · Detroit Tigers · 1.55
- NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays · 1 · NY Yankees · 1.65
total odds: 3.84 · announced probability of winning: 22.2%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Chicago Cubs – Miami Marlins · 2 · Miami Marlins · 2.45
- Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee Brewers · 1 · Philadelphia Phillies · 2.20
- Kansas City Royals – Chicago White Sox · 1 · Kansas City Royals · 2.00
total odds: 10.78 · announced probability of winning: 8.4%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Toronto Blue Jays (2. mec) | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-2 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee Brewers | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-4 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.85 | 51.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-5 | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Aruba – Antigva I Barbuda | 12 | 1.25 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.65 | 58.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 9-2 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 1.42 | 66.7% | 71.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Miami Marlins | 2 · Miami Marlins | 2.45 | 38.8% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 5-4 | |
| 02:05 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – NY Mets | 1 · Texas Rangers | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-7 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | America Cali – Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · Colorado Rockies | 2.30 | 41.0% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-5 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Alianza San Salvador – CD Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 1.25 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 | |
| 03:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Seattle Sounders – Real Salt Lake | 1X | 1.30 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Oakland Athletics | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 7-3 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – San Diego Padres | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.47 | 65.2% | 68.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-5 |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Houston Astros | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-5 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Bondar Anna – Charaeva Alina | 1 · Bondar Anna | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Ma Ye Xin – Birrell Kimberly | 2 · Birrell Kimberly | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Wang Xinyu – Garland Joanna | 1 · Wang Xinyu | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 13:40 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Parks Alycia – Fernandez Leylah Annie | 2 · Fernandez Leylah Annie | 1.32 | 72.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 16:30 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | Irak – Oman | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Enyimba – Sporting Lagos FC | 12 | 1.27 | 72.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Inter Lagos FC – Kano Pillars | 1X | 1.27 | 72.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Sj. Makedonija - 1. MFL | Bregalnica Stip – FK Skopje | 12 | 1.23 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Washington Nationals | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-4 | |
| 19:35 | ⚾ MLB | Baltimore Orioles – Toronto Blue Jays | 1 · Baltimore Orioles | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-2 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | Saudijska Arabija – Kuvajt | 1 · Saudijska Arabija | 1.30 | 71.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Otoci Turks I Caicos – Montserrat | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:45 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Minnesota Twins | 1 · San Francisco Giants | 2.25 | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-4 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Peru - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | AD Tarma – CS Cienciano | 12 | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Bahami – Sveti Martin | over 2.5 | 1.29 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA SINGAPUR | Gibson Talia – Morvayova Viktoria | 1 | 1.07 | 89.4% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Otoci Turks I Caicos – Montserrat | 2 | 1.13 | 80.5% |
| Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Bahami – Sveti Martin | 2 | 1.13 | 80.5% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Prozorova Tatiana – Eala Alexandra | 2 | 1.16 | 82.3% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Sakkari Maria – Hibino Nao | 1 | 1.19 | 80.1% |
| WTA SINGAPUR | Wang Xinyu – Garland Joanna | 1 | 1.28 | 73.8% |