Probabilities & picks · 24 September 2026
34 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 19 of 33 settled picks correct (57.6%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Hapoel Tel Aviv – Bayern Munchen · 1X · 1.30
- Andora – Malta · X2 · 1.30
- Katar – Bahrein · 12 · 1.33
total odds: 2.25 · announced probability of winning: 38.0%
❌ lost
Medium
- Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels · 1 · Seattle Mariners · 1.50
- Colorado Rockies – Arizona Diamondbacks · 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks · 1.55
- ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Maccabi Tel Aviv · X2 · 1.50
total odds: 3.49 · announced probability of winning: 29.6%
❌ lost
Riskier
- BC Dubai – Real Madrid · 1 · BC Dubai · 1.85
- Barcelona Lassa – Anadolu Efes · 1 · Barcelona Lassa · 1.90
- Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros · 1 · Oakland Athletics · 2.35
total odds: 8.26 · announced probability of winning: 11.6%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:05 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee Brewers | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.85 | 51.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-5 | |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-1 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-4 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Atlanta Braves – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Atlanta Braves | 1.47 | 64.7% | 69.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6-7 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Atletico Nacional Medellin – Millonarios FC | 1X | 1.20 | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros | 1 · Oakland Athletics | 2.35 | 40.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5-7 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.50 | 63.4% | 68.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 4-6 |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Kostarika – Curacao | 12 | 1.25 | 74.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-4 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – San Diego Padres | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-4 | |
| 13:30 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Zhang Zhizhen – Wong Chak Lam Coleman | 2 · Wong Chak Lam Coleman | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Mianmar – Istocni Timor | over 2.5 | 1.28 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Namibija – Kongo | X2 | 1.55 | 60.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Rivers Utd – Kun Khalifat FC | 1 · Rivers Utd | 1.25 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-0 | |
| 17:55 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | UAE – Jemen | 1 · UAE | 1.28 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Andora – Malta | X2 | 1.30 | 71.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | BC Dubai – Real Madrid | 1X | 1.65 | 60.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 78-77 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | DR Kongo – Ekvatorijalna Gvineja | 1 · DR Kongo | 1.28 | 72.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 18:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Hapoel Tel Aviv – Bayern Munchen | 1X | 1.30 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 84-86 | |
| 18:35 | ⚾ MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Crvena Zvezda Beograd – Zalgiris Kaunas | 1X | 1.55 | 61.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 77-83 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | Katar – Bahrein | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-9 | |
| 20:15 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – Paris Basketball | 1 · Panathinaikos | 1.24 | 76.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 91-72 | |
| 20:20 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago Cubs – Miami Marlins | 1 · Chicago Cubs | 1.50 | 63.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Barcelona Lassa – Anadolu Efes | 1 · Barcelona Lassa | 1.90 | 52.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 89-82 | |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Baskonia VG – Olympiacos Piraeus | X2 | 1.22 | 79.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 89-106 | |
| 20:35 | ⚾ MLB | Texas Rangers – NY Mets | 1 · Texas Rangers | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 20:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Maccabi Tel Aviv | X2 | 1.50 | 64.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 84-74 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Kamerun – Komori | 1 · Kamerun | 1.35 | 68.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Obala Bjelokosti – Gana | 12 | 1.25 | 74.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Tunis – Uganda | 12 | 1.20 | 78.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 21:10 | ⚾ MLB | Colorado Rockies – Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.55 | 62.2% | 67.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8-12 |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | US Amal Tiznit – Ittihad Tanger | under 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - FIFA ASEAN KUP | Mianmar – Istocni Timor | 1 | 1.15 | 79.1% |
| Gvatemala - LIGA NACIONAL | Municipal – CD Suchitepequez | 1 | 1.18 | 77.6% |
| EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – Paris Basketball | 1 | 1.24 | 76.3% |
| Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Rivers Utd – Kun Khalifat FC | 1 | 1.25 | 72.5% |
| Reprezentacije - GULF CUP | UAE – Jemen | 1 | 1.28 | 73.0% |
| Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | DR Kongo – Ekvatorijalna Gvineja | 1 | 1.28 | 72.9% |
| EUROLIGA | Baskonia VG – Olympiacos Piraeus | 2 | 1.28 | 74.1% |