Probabilities & picks · 25 September 2026
40 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 22 of 39 settled picks correct (56.4%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies · 1 · Chicago White Sox · 1.45
- Italija – Belgija · 1X · 1.40
- Turska – Francuska · 2 · Francuska · 1.35
total odds: 2.74 · announced probability of winning: 37.4%
❌ lost
Medium
- Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros · 2 · Houston Astros · 1.55
- Partizan Beograd – Olimpia Milano · 1X · 1.60
- Poljska – BiH · 1 · Poljska · 1.65
total odds: 4.09 · announced probability of winning: 25.6%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Italija – Belgija · 1 · Italija · 2.30
- Boston Red Sox – Chicago Cubs (2. mec) · 1 · Boston Red Sox · 2.00
- Washington Nationals – NY Mets · 1 · Washington Nationals · 2.10
total odds: 9.66 · announced probability of winning: 9.5%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:05 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Chicago Cubs (2. mec) | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 2.00 | 48.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8-7 | |
| 00:40 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 00:45 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – NY Mets | 1 · Washington Nationals | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 7-6 | |
| 01:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Baltimore Orioles (2. mec) | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-3 | |
| 01:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-5 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Miami Marlins | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.45 | 66.3% | 71.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 6-1 |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.15 | 44.2% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 9-12 | |
| 01:40 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.55 | 61.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8-4 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Jamajka – Gvatemala | 1X | 1.21 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 02:10 | ⚾ MLB | Minnesota Twins – Texas Rangers | 1 · Minnesota Twins | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 10-2 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Atlante FC – CF Monterrey | X2 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 4-2 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Honduras – Surinam | 12 | 1.23 | 75.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 03:15 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CD Once Caldas – CA Bucaramanga | 1X | 1.24 | 74.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-3 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros | 2 · Houston Astros | 1.55 | 61.3% | 66.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6-5 |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.75 | 55.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 4-11 | |
| 04:10 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5-7 | |
| 04:15 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.27 | 75.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 04:20 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Tararudee Lanlana – Joint Maya | 1 · Tararudee Lanlana | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 05:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Club Tijuana De Caliente – Atlas FC | 1X | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 14:30 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Sakkari Maria – Gibson Talia | 1 · Sakkari Maria | 1.42 | 67.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Tanzanija – Gvineja Bisau | 1X | 1.30 | 72.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Armenija – Latvija | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Gruzija – Sjeverna Irska | 12 | 1.33 | 71.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Sudan – Etiopija | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 19:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Besiktas JK – Valencia BC | 1X | 1.70 | 56.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 94-96 | |
| 19:05 | ⚾ MLB | Boston Red Sox – Chicago Cubs | 1 · Boston Red Sox | 2.00 | 47.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-3 | |
| 19:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Fenerbahce Istanbul – Virtus Bologna | 1 · Fenerbahce Istanbul | 1.20 | 79.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 78-68 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Crna Gora – Cipar | 1X | 1.20 | 77.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Italija – Belgija | 1X | 1.40 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Madarska – Ukrajina | 12 | 1.35 | 69.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 20:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Partizan Beograd – Olimpia Milano | 1X | 1.60 | 62.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 92-76 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Poljska – BiH | 1 · Poljska | 1.65 | 60.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Svedska – Rumunjska | 12 | 1.20 | 79.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Turska – Francuska | 2 · Francuska | 1.35 | 74.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Burkina Faso – Benin | 12 | 1.23 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Egipat – Angola | 1 · Egipat | 1.35 | 68.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Mali – Zelenortski Otoci | 1X | 1.25 | 74.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 22:05 | ⚾ MLB | NY Yankees – Baltimore Orioles | 1 · NY Yankees | 1.70 | 55.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-10 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROLIGA | Fenerbahce Istanbul – Virtus Bologna | 1 | 1.20 | 79.2% |
| MLB | San Francisco Giants – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 1.27 | 75.0% |