Probabilities & picks · 26 September 2026
41 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 24 of 40 settled picks correct (60.0%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- San Francisco Giants – Los Angeles Dodgers · 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers · 1.30
- Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies · 1 · Chicago White Sox · 1.45
- Ceska – Hrvatska · X2 · 1.40
total odds: 2.64 · announced probability of winning: 39.9%
❌ lost
Medium
- Slovenija – Skotska · X2 · 1.60
- Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels · 1 · Seattle Mariners · 1.50
- Toronto Blue Jays – Cincinnati Reds · 1 · Toronto Blue Jays · 1.60
total odds: 3.84 · announced probability of winning: 24.6%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals · 2 · St. Louis Cardinals · 2.55
- Engleska – Spanjolska · 2 · Spanjolska · 2.30
- Detroit Tigers – Pittsburgh Pirates · 1 · Detroit Tigers · 1.85
total odds: 10.85 · announced probability of winning: 9.1%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:07 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Guadalajara Chivas – Queretaro FC | 12 | 1.20 | 78.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Chicago White Sox – Colorado Rockies | 1 · Chicago White Sox | 1.45 | 65.9% | 70.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 6-9 |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Kansas City Royals – Cleveland Guardians | 1 · Kansas City Royals | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 5-11 | |
| 01:10 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals | 2 · St. Louis Cardinals | 2.55 | 37.0% | 40.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-2 |
| 01:15 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Cucuta Deportivo – Llaneros FC | 1X | 1.33 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 01:15 | ⚾ MLB | Philadelphia Phillies – Tampa Bay Rays | 1 · Philadelphia Phillies | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-12 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Atlanta Utd – New York City FC | 12 | 1.30 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-2 | |
| 01:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Philadelphia Union – Orlando City | over 2.5 | 1.29 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Dallas – Los Angeles FC | 12 | 1.28 | 74.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 02:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Nashville SC – Toronto | over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:40 | ⚾ MLB | San Diego Padres – Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 · San Diego Padres | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 10-7 | |
| 03:20 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CD Junior FC – Independiente Medellin | 1X | 1.32 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Oakland Athletics – Houston Astros | 1 · Oakland Athletics | 2.20 | 43.6% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 2-13 | |
| 03:40 | ⚾ MLB | Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles Angels | 1 · Seattle Mariners | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 8-4 | |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveti Martin – Belize | X2 | 1.33 | 69.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 04:30 | ⚽ SAD - MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps – DC Utd | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 05:05 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Club Santos Laguna – CF Pachuca | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 05:10 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Tigres UANL – Puebla | 12 | 1.23 | 76.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 11:15 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Medvedev Daniil – Royer Valentin | 1 · Medvedev Daniil | 1.30 | 77.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 11:20 | 🎾 WTA SEOUL | Korneeva Alina – Joint Maya | 1 · Korneeva Alina | 1.42 | 66.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 12:00 | 🎾 WTA SINGAPUR | Fernandez Leylah Annie – Chwalinska Maja | 1 · Fernandez Leylah Annie | 1.60 | 59.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 13:30 | 🎾 ATP HANGZHOU | Wong Chak Lam Coleman – Vallejo Adolfo Daniel | 1 · Wong Chak Lam Coleman | 1.50 | 63.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | JAR – Gvineja | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - AFCON KVALIFIKACIJE | Kenija – Eritreja | 1 · Kenija | 1.40 | 66.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Slovenija – Skotska | X2 | 1.60 | 62.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Bugarska – Luksemburg | 1X | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Farski Otoci – Kazahstan | 12 | 1.35 | 69.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Island – Estonija | 1 · Island | 1.30 | 71.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | San Marino – Finska | over 2.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:35 | ⚾ MLB | Washington Nationals – NY Mets | 1 · Washington Nationals | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-7 | |
| 19:10 | ⚾ MLB | Detroit Tigers – Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 · Detroit Tigers | 1.85 | 51.9% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-3 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Albanija – Bjelorusija | 1 · Albanija | 1.50 | 62.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Ceska – Hrvatska | X2 | 1.40 | 72.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Engleska – Spanjolska | 12 | 1.40 | 71.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Sjeverna Makedonija – Svicarska | 2 · Svicarska | 1.40 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Slovacka – Moldavija | over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:07 | ⚾ MLB | Toronto Blue Jays – Cincinnati Reds | 1 · Toronto Blue Jays | 1.60 | 59.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-5 | |
| 22:05 | ⚾ MLB | San Francisco Giants – Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.30 | 72.9% | 77.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-4 |
| 22:10 | ⚾ MLB | Miami Marlins – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Miami Marlins | 2.10 | 45.5% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-8 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CS Deportivo Pereira – Internacional De Bogota | X2 | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveti Vincent I Grenadini – Francuska Gvajana | X2 | 1.32 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | San Marino – Finska | 2 | 1.08 | 86.1% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Slovacka – Moldavija | 1 | 1.15 | 81.5% |
| SAD - MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps – DC Utd | 1 | 1.26 | 74.1% |