Probabilities & picks · 2 October 2026
60 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 36 of 53 settled picks correct (67.9%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Cipar – Armenija · 12 · 1.33
- Madarska – Gruzija · 12 · 1.35
- Salvador – Jamajka · X2 · 1.30
total odds: 2.33 · announced probability of winning: 37.0%
✅ won
Medium
- Francuska – Italija · 1 · Francuska · 1.50
- ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Valencia BC · X2 · 1.50
- BiH – Svedska · 1X · 1.60
total odds: 3.60 · announced probability of winning: 27.1%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Baskonia VG – Olimpia Milano · 1 · Baskonia VG · 2.15
- Kazahstan – Moldavija · over 2.5 · 2.35
- Poljska – Rumunjska · under 2.5 · 2.35
total odds: 11.87 · announced probability of winning: 7.5%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Surinam – Gvatemala | 1X | 1.35 | 68.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 |
| 00:15 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Independiente – Instituto Cordoba | X2 | 1.55 | 60.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-4 |
| 00:30 | 🏒 NHL | Detroit Red Wings – NY Rangers | 2 · NY Rangers | 2.00 | 45.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 00:30 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Sao Bernardo FC – CR Brasil AL | X2 | 1.40 | 66.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-1 |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Carolina Hurricanes – Washington Capitals | 1 · Carolina Hurricanes | 1.65 | 56.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-5 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Sao Paulo SP – Santos SP | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Cile - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Universidad De Concepcion – Huachipato | 1X | 1.30 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 01:30 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Londrina PR – Criciuma EC | X2 | 1.33 | 68.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 01:45 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Juventude RS – Operario Ferroviario | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Barbados – Bermuda | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Bonaire – Grenada | 12 | 1.24 | 74.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-3 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Kolumbija – Paragvaj | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Martinik – Honduras | X2 | 1.20 | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-1 |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Winnipeg Jets – Boston Bruins | 1 · Winnipeg Jets | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-4 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe | 12 | 1.23 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 02:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Independiente Rivadavia – Gimnasia La Plata | 12 | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 02:35 | ⚽ Brazil - SERIE B | Fortaleza CE – Nautico PE | 12 | 1.25 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 02:45 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | AD Cali – Alianza FC Valledupar | 12 | 1.20 | 76.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 |
| 03:00 | 🏒 NHL | Dallas Stars – St. Louis Blues | 1 · Dallas Stars | 1.55 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-4 |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Salvador – Jamajka | X2 | 1.30 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Shapovalov Denis – Tabilo Alejandro | 1 · Shapovalov Denis | 1.65 | 57.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Vegas Golden Knights – Anaheim Ducks | 1 · Vegas Golden Knights | 1.50 | 62.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 3-4 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Bouzkova Marie – Birrell Kimberly | 1 · Bouzkova Marie | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | De Minaur Alex – Halys Quentin | 1 · De Minaur Alex | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Krueger Ashlyn – Li Ann | 1 · Krueger Ashlyn | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 0-2 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Sakkari Maria – Hunter Storm | 1 · Sakkari Maria | 1.37 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Siniakova Katerina – Svitolina Elina | 2 · Svitolina Elina | 1.26 | 75.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Vekic Donna – Zhu Lin | 1 · Vekic Donna | 1.65 | 61.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Volynets Katie – Mertens Elise | 1 · Volynets Katie | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 1-2 |
| 13:00 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Hurkacz Hubert – Gea Arthur | 1 · Hurkacz Hubert | 1.65 | 57.1% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-1 |
| 13:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Juzna Koreja – Venezuela | 12 | 1.23 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 |
| 13:35 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Kina – Palestina | 12 | 1.33 | 70.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-5 |
| 14:30 | 🎾 ATP PEKING | Bu Yunchaokete – Dokovic Novak | 2 · Dokovic Novak | 1.26 | 75.1% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | DR Kongo – Uganda | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Kazahstan – Moldavija | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Cipar – Armenija | 12 | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | FUS De Rabat – US Amal Tiznit | 12 | 1.26 | 73.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Latvija – Crna Gora | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 19:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Besiktas JK – Barcelona Lassa | 1X | 1.65 | 58.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 82-95 |
| 19:45 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Fenerbahce Istanbul – BC Dubai | 1X | 1.40 | 69.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 76-66 |
| 20:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Valencia BC | X2 | 1.50 | 64.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 92-105 |
| 20:00 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Bayern Munchen – Partizan Beograd | 1X | 1.47 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 84-86 |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Widad Temara – Union Touarga | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 20:15 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 · Panathinaikos | 1.25 | 75.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 90-67 |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Baskonia VG – Olimpia Milano | 1 · Baskonia VG | 2.15 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 86-76 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Belgija – Turska | 12 | 1.23 | 77.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | BiH – Svedska | 1X | 1.60 | 62.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Irska - PREMIER DIVISION | Dundalk – Bohemians | 12 | 1.25 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-2 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Farski Otoci – Slovacka | 12 | 1.25 | 74.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Francuska – Italija | 12 | 1.25 | 79.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Madarska – Gruzija | 12 | 1.35 | 70.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Poljska – Rumunjska | 12 | 1.23 | 77.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Ukrajina – Sjeverna Irska | 12 | 1.35 | 69.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveta Lucija – Gvadalupa | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Ittihad Tanger – Moghreb Athletic De Tetouan | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 61.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveti Kristofor I Nevis – Kuba | X2 | 1.20 | 76.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-3 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA PEKING | Zarazua Renata – Sabalenka Aryna | 2 | 1.01 | 95.2% |
| WTA PEKING | Gauff Coco – Osorio Camila | 1 | 1.06 | 90.1% |
| WTA PEKING | Jovic Iva – Dart Harriet | 1 | 1.08 | 88.6% |
| ATP TOKYO | Alcaraz Carlos – Arnaldi Matteo | 1 | 1.08 | 88.1% |
| EUROLIGA | Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 1.25 | 75.8% |
| ATP PEKING | Bu Yunchaokete – Dokovic Novak | 2 | 1.26 | 75.1% |
| WTA PEKING | Siniakova Katerina – Svitolina Elina | 2 | 1.26 | 75.6% |