Probabilities & picks · 3 October 2026
62 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 41 of 55 settled picks correct (74.5%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Hrvatska – Engleska · 12 · 1.35
- Svicarska – Slovenija · 1 · Svicarska · 1.30
- SAD – Meksiko · 12 · 1.30
total odds: 2.28 · announced probability of winning: 39.5%
✅ won
Medium
- Milwaukee Brewers – San Diego Padres · 1 · Milwaukee Brewers · 1.50
- Finska – Albanija · under 2.5 · 1.50
- Hassania Agadir – Maghreb Fes · under 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 26.9%
❌ lost
Riskier
- Belize – Francuska Gvajana · over 2.5 · 2.30
- Raja Casablanca – Renaissance Zemamra · over 2.5 · 2.20
- Kanada – Peru · over 2.5 · 1.95
total odds: 9.87 · announced probability of winning: 8.6%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | CD Recoleta – Libertad Asuncion | X2 | 1.23 | 74.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 00:30 | ⚾ MLB | Tampa Bay Rays – NY Yankees | 1 · Tampa Bay Rays | 1.75 | 54.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Buffalo Sabres – Chicago Blackhawks | 1 · Buffalo Sabres | 1.42 | 65.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-3 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Columbus Blue Jackets – Utah Mammoth | 1 · Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-4 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Edmonton Oilers – Seattle Kraken | 1 · Edmonton Oilers | 1.47 | 63.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Philadelphia Flyers – Carolina Hurricanes | 1 · Philadelphia Flyers | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Pittsburgh Penguins – Montreal Canadiens | 1 · Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-5 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Tampa Bay Lightning – Washington Capitals | 1 · Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Toronto Maple Leafs – Ottawa Senators | 1 · Toronto Maple Leafs | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 2-3 | |
| 01:30 | 🏒 NHL | New York Islanders – New Jersey Devils | 1 · New York Islanders | 2.00 | 46.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-0 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Argentina – Burkina Faso | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Minnesota Wild – Boston Bruins | 1 · Minnesota Wild | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 4-1 | |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Nashville Predators – Dallas Stars | 1 · Nashville Predators | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 02:30 | ⚾ MLB | Milwaukee Brewers – San Diego Padres | 1 · Milwaukee Brewers | 1.50 | 63.9% | 68.9% | ⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 |
| 03:00 | 🏒 NHL | Colorado Avalanche – St. Louis Blues | 1 · Colorado Avalanche | 1.32 | 71.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 6-1 | |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Belize – Francuska Gvajana | X2 | 1.35 | 68.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 04:00 | 🎾 ATP TOKYO | Munar Jaume – Jacquet Kyrian | 1 · Munar Jaume | 1.60 | 58.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | SAD – Meksiko | 12 | 1.30 | 71.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | San Jose Sharks – Los Angeles Kings | 1 · San Jose Sharks | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-4 | |
| 04:00 | 🏒 NHL | Vancouver Canucks – Calgary Flames | 2 · Calgary Flames | 1.90 | 49.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 4-1 | |
| 05:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Kraus Sinja – Yastremska Dayana | 2 · Yastremska Dayana | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ❌ 2-0 | |
| 13:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Kartal Sonay – Wang Xinyu | 1 · Kartal Sonay | 1.90 | 50.0% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Finska – Albanija | 1X | 1.45 | 70.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Avai SC – Ceara SC CE | under 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Carrick Rangers – Crusaders FC | over 2.5 | 1.52 | 61.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Cliftonville – Ballymena Utd | 12 | 1.25 | 73.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Glentoran FC – Dungannon Swifts | 1X | 1.20 | 77.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Liverpool Montevideo – CA Progreso | 12 | 1.23 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Portadown – Limavady Utd | 12 | 1.25 | 74.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Bjelorusija – San Marino | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Estonija – Luksemburg | X2 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-0 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Hassania Agadir – Maghreb Fes | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Hrvatska – Engleska | 12 | 1.35 | 74.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-7 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Island – Bugarska | 12 | 1.20 | 78.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚾ MLB | Cleveland Guardians – Chicago White Sox | 1 · Cleveland Guardians | 1.65 | 58.2% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-3 | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Defensa Y Justicia – San Lorenzo De Almagro | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Albion FC – Defensor Sporting | 12 | 1.30 | 71.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | CODM Meknes – Kawkab Athletic Club Of Marrakech | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | DH El Jadidi – Wydad AC | under 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Kanada – Peru | 12 | 1.20 | 78.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Sjeverna Makedonija – Skotska | X2 | 1.20 | 83.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Spanjolska – Ceska | over 2.5 | 1.25 | 76.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Svicarska – Slovenija | 1 · Svicarska | 1.30 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | AC Goianiense GO – America MG | 1 · AC Goianiense GO | 1.25 | 72.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Aguilas Doradas – Jaguares De Cordoba | 1 · Aguilas Doradas | 1.47 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Obala Bjelokosti – Kamerun | 12 | 1.33 | 70.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Atl.Tucuman – Barracas Central | under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Cuiaba EC – Ponte Preta | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Paragvaj - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Guarani Asuncion – Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1 · Guarani Asuncion | 1.50 | 62.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 22:00 | ⚾ MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers – Atlanta Braves | 1 · Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.45 | 65.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 5-3 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Newell's Old Boys – Atletico Lanus | 12 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Raja Casablanca – Renaissance Zemamra | 12 | 1.26 | 72.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Deportivo Maldonado – Central Espanol | 12 | 1.21 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Reprezentacije - CONCACAF LIGA NACIJA A | Sveti Martin – Sveti Vincent I Grenadini | X2 | 1.21 | 76.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-4 | |
| 23:05 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CD Tolima – Boyaca Chico | 1 · CD Tolima | 1.33 | 67.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE A | Atletico Mineiro – RB Bragantino SP | 1X | 1.25 | 75.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 23:30 | ⚽ Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Botafogo SP – Vila Nova GO | under 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Indija – Brazil | 2 | 1.01 | 92.2% |
| WTA PEKING | Rybakina Elena – Charaeva Alina | 1 | 1.03 | 92.1% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Bjelorusija – San Marino | 1 | 1.05 | 88.2% |
| ATP PEKING | Zverev Alexander – Shang Juncheng | 1 | 1.05 | 90.5% |
| Reprezentacije - UEFA LIGA NACIJA | Spanjolska – Ceska | 1 | 1.07 | 89.8% |
| Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Rusija – Namibija | 1 | 1.10 | 84.7% |
| Reprezentacije - PRIJATELJSKE | Argentina – Burkina Faso | 1 | 1.10 | 85.1% |
| WTA PEKING | Bartunkova Nikola – Sabalenka Aryna | 2 | 1.14 | 83.6% |
| Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | Cuiaba EC – Ponte Preta | 1 | 1.15 | 79.0% |
| Brazil - BRASILEIRO, SERIE B | AC Goianiense GO – America MG | 1 | 1.25 | 72.8% |