Probabilities & picks · 9 October 2026
90 matches from the day's offer. Each comes with the odds, the fair market probability (odds with the bookmaker's margin removed), our preferred option and — once played — the result. Numbers are recorded before the first kick-off and never changed afterwards.
Day result: 62 of 79 settled picks correct (78.5%).
Three tickets of the day
Safe
- Moreirense FC – Gil Vicente · X2 · 1.30
- Opatija – Kustosija Zagreb · 12 · 1.30
- Puebla – Club Leon · 12 · 1.33
total odds: 2.25 · announced probability of winning: 37.8%
❌ lost
Medium
- Lens – Olympique Lyon · 1X · 1.50
- Malaga CF – Espanyol · X2 · 1.50
- Galatasaray SK – Kasimpasa · over 2.5 · 1.50
total odds: 3.38 · announced probability of winning: 27.6%
✅ won
Riskier
- Barcelona Lassa – Zalgiris Kaunas · 2 · Zalgiris Kaunas · 2.30
- FK Rostov – FK Akron Tolyatti · over 2.5 · 2.03
- NK Karlovac – BSK Bijelo Brdo · over 2.5 · 2.35
total odds: 10.97 · announced probability of winning: 8.2%
❌ lost
Picks by match
| Start | League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p | Our p | Rating | Data | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Instituto Cordoba – Boca Juniors | X2 | 1.40 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | Alianza FC Valledupar – Aguilas Doradas | 1X | 1.37 | 67.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 · Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.80 | 51.4% | ⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 01:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Deportivo Maldonado – Liverpool Montevideo | 12 | 1.30 | 71.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Detroit Red Wings – Seattle Kraken | 1 · Detroit Red Wings | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 3-6 | |
| 01:00 | 🏒 NHL | Washington Capitals – NY Rangers | 1 · Washington Capitals | 1.70 | 55.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 02:00 | ⚽ Salvador - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | CD Inca – CD Platense Zacatecoluca | X2 | 1.40 | 65.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-4 | |
| 02:00 | 🏒 NHL | Winnipeg Jets – Anaheim Ducks | 1 · Winnipeg Jets | 1.80 | 52.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 1-5 | |
| 02:45 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Union Santa Fe – Defensa Y Justicia | 12 | 1.33 | 70.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Peru - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA | Deportivo Garcilaso – Sport Huancayo | 1X | 1.33 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-1 | |
| 03:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Puebla – Club Leon | 12 | 1.33 | 71.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 03:10 | ⚽ Kolumbija - PRIMERA A | CD Once Caldas – Llaneros FC | 12 | 1.20 | 77.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 04:00 | ⚽ Kostarika - PRIMERA DIVIZIJA, APERTURA | Sporting FC – CS Cartagines | 1X | 1.32 | 69.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 05:00 | ⚽ Meksiko - LIGA MX | Tigres UANL – Deportivo Toluca | 12 | 1.28 | 73.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 06:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Lehecka Jiri – Borges Nuno | 1 · Lehecka Jiri | 1.33 | 71.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 06:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Tirante Thiago Agustin – Jodar Rafael | 2 · Jodar Rafael | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 07:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Arnaldi Matteo – Fritz Taylor | 2 · Fritz Taylor | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 07:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Bu Yunchaokete – Ruud Casper | 1 · Bu Yunchaokete | 2.25 | 42.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 07:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Svrcina Dalibor – Etcheverry Tomas Martin | 1 · Svrcina Dalibor | 2.10 | 44.7% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 07:10 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Tabilo Alejandro – Carreno-Busta Pablo | 1 · Tabilo Alejandro | 1.55 | 61.3% | ⭐ | 🔴 | ⏳ pending | |
| 08:00 | 🎾 WTA PEKING | Andreeva Mirra – Bartunkova Nikola | 1 · Andreeva Mirra | 1.37 | 68.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 12:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Bublik Alexander – Machac Tomas | 1 · Bublik Alexander | 1.47 | 63.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 12:00 | 🎾 ATP SHANGHAI | Dokovic Novak – Hurkacz Hubert | 1 · Dokovic Novak | 1.55 | 64.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-2 | |
| 13:35 | ⚽ Kina - SUPER LIGA | Qingdao Hainiu – Beijing Guoan | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 13:35 | ⚽ Kina - SUPER LIGA | Shenzhen Peng City – Henan Songshan Longmen | X2 | 1.45 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 14:00 | ⚽ Kina - SUPER LIGA | Zhejiang Professional – Shanghai Port FC | 12 | 1.25 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-4 | |
| 14:30 | ⚽ Ukrajina - PREMIER LEAGUE | Veres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 · Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.25 | 72.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-3 | |
| 15:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SUPERSPORT PRVA NL | NK Sesvete – Jadran Luka Ploce | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 15:15 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Chador Malu Yazd – Kheybar Khorramabad | X2 | 1.47 | 62.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-2 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SUPERSPORT PRVA NL | Mladost Zdralovi – Cibalia | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SUPERSPORT PRVA NL | Opatija – Kustosija Zagreb | 12 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 15:30 | ⚽ Iran - PRO LIGA | Persepolis FC – Sanat Naft Abadan | 1 · Persepolis FC | 1.27 | 71.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-1 | |
| 15:50 | ⚽ Saudijska Arabija - PRO LEAGUE | Al Kholood – Al Qadsiah FC | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:00 | ⚽ Jordan - PRO LEAGUE | Al Hussein Irbid – Al Arabi Irbid | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:45 | ⚽ Katar - STARS LIGA | Qatar SC – Al Rayyan SC | over 2.5 | 1.41 | 65.3% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 16:55 | ⚽ Saudijska Arabija - PRO LEAGUE | Al Fateh – Al Ahli Saudi | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Corvinul Hunedoara – FC Voluntari | 12 | 1.23 | 75.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Finska - VEIKKAUSLIIGA | SJK Seinajoen – FC Lahti | 12 | 1.27 | 72.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 17:00 | ⚽ Irak - STARS LEAGUE | Zakho – Newroz SC | X2 | 1.37 | 66.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Ceska - 1. LIGA | FC Zlin – Slavia Prag | 2 · Slavia Prag | 1.25 | 74.6% | 79.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-1 |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SHNL | HNK Gorica – NK Rudes | 1X | 1.20 | 83.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Hrvatska - SUPERSPORT PRVA NL | NK Karlovac – BSK Bijelo Brdo | 12 | 1.35 | 69.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 18:00 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Wieczysta Krakow – Wisla Plock | 12 | 1.28 | 73.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - 2. BUNDESLIGA | 1.FC Heidenheim – 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 12 | 1.25 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 0-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Jordan - PRO LEAGUE | Al Jazeera Club Amman – Al Wehdat | 12 | 1.21 | 75.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - 2. BUNDESLIGA | Eintracht Braunschweig – Holstein Kiel | 12 | 1.28 | 73.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Rusija - PREMIER LEAGUE | FK Rostov – FK Akron Tolyatti | 1X | 1.21 | 76.0% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 18:30 | ⚽ Nigerija - PREMIER LEAGUE | Katsina Utd – Enyimba | under 2.5 | 1.45 | 62.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Irak - STARS LEAGUE | Al Naft – Diyala FC | 1X | 1.23 | 74.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 18:45 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | Kabylie – ASO Chlef | 1 · Kabylie | 1.45 | 62.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Katar - STARS LIGA | Al Sadd SC – Al Arabi Doha | over 2.5 | 1.27 | 72.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Danska - SUPERLIGA | FC Nordsjaelland – Odense BK | over 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Turska - SUPER LIGA | Galatasaray SK – Kasimpasa | over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Svedska - ALLSVENSKAN | IFK Goteborg – Vasteras SK | 12 | 1.25 | 75.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 19:00 | ⚽ Norveska - ELITESERIEN | SK Brann – Viking FK | 12 | 1.25 | 75.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-2 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Irak - STARS LEAGUE | Al-Gharraf SC – Al Julan | X2 | 1.47 | 62.6% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 0-0 | |
| 19:30 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | CA Aldosivi – CA Sarmiento | 12 | 1.35 | 69.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 19:45 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | Moreirense FC – Gil Vicente | X2 | 1.30 | 72.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 0-1 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Saudijska Arabija - PRO LEAGUE | Al Nassr FC – Al Draih | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Ekvador - SERIE A | Libertad Loja – Club Leones Del Norte | 12 | 1.32 | 69.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 2 | Montpellier – Grenoble | 12 | 1.22 | 75.8% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 2 | Nancy – EA Guingamp | 1X | 1.24 | 74.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen | 1 · PSV Eindhoven | 1.25 | 74.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 2-0 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 2 | Pau FC – Laval | 1X | 1.27 | 72.4% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Rumunjska - LIGA I | Sepsi OSK – Dinamo Bukurest | over 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 2 | Sochaux – US Boulogne | 1X | 1.30 | 70.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 20:00 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 2 | USL Dunkerque – Annecy FC | 1X | 1.33 | 69.5% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ❌ 0-1 | |
| 20:15 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Olympiacos Piraeus – Anadolu Efes | 1 · Olympiacos Piraeus | 1.24 | 76.5% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 89-66 | |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Barcelona Lassa – Zalgiris Kaunas | 2 · Zalgiris Kaunas | 2.30 | 43.4% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 81-88 | |
| 20:30 | 🏀 EUROLIGA | Baskonia VG – Besiktas JK | 1X | 1.70 | 56.7% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 84-92 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Njemacka - BUNDESLIGA | Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen | over 2.5 | 1.36 | 70.1% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Poljska - EKSTRAKLASA | Rakow Czestochowa – GKS Katowice | 12 | 1.28 | 73.7% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-4 | |
| 20:30 | ⚽ Italija - SERIE B | US Avellino 1912 – Sampdoria | 12 | 1.33 | 70.6% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 4-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Francuska - LIGUE 1 | Lens – Olympique Lyon | 1X | 1.50 | 66.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Sjeverna Irska - PREMIERSHIP | Portadown – Glentoran FC | under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Belgija - PRO LIGA | SK Beveren – Lommel SK | 12 | 1.25 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 20:45 | ⚽ Irska - PREMIER DIVISION | Shelbourne FC – Sligo Rovers | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Alzir - LIGUE 1 | MC Alger – CR Temouchent | 1 · MC Alger | 1.20 | 76.1% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Spanjolska - LA LIGA | Malaga CF – Espanyol | X2 | 1.50 | 65.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-1 | |
| 21:00 | ⚽ Engleska - CHAMPIONSHIP | West Ham – Queens Park Rangers | over 2.5 | 1.53 | 62.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 21:15 | ⚽ Portugal - PRIMEIRA LIGA | SC Braga – Sporting Lisabon | 12 | 1.33 | 70.3% | ⭐⭐ | 🟢 | ✅ 1-3 | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Maroko - BOTOLA | Moghreb Athletic De Tetouan – FUS De Rabat | under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ⏳ pending | |
| 22:00 | ⚽ Urugvaj - PRIMERA DIVISION | Montevideo City Torque – Danubio FC | 1X | 1.23 | 75.2% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 1-0 | |
| 22:30 | ⚽ Ekvador - SERIE A | Delfin SC – Mushuc Runa SC | 1X | 1.28 | 71.8% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 3-2 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Argentina - LIGA PROFESIONAL | Gimnasia La Plata – Atl.Tucuman | 12 | 1.33 | 70.9% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ❌ 1-1 | |
| 23:00 | ⚽ Honduras - LIGA NACIONAL, APERTURA | Platense FC – Juticalpa FC | 1X | 1.23 | 75.0% | ⭐ | 🟡 | ✅ 2-1 |
⭐ is our judgement, not a measured claim: more stars have not been proven to mean a better bet. 🟢🟡🔴 shows how completely the match was processed.
Better skip
Favourites priced below 1.30 — the only class where our own records prove that backing them loses.
| League | Match | Pick | Odds | Market p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP SHANGHAI | Ugo Carabelli Camilo – Auger Aliassime Felix | 2 | 1.02 | 93.2% |
| ATP SHANGHAI | Medvedev Daniil – Struff Jan-Lennard | 1 | 1.13 | 84.2% |
| WTA PEKING | Mertens Elise – Swiatek Iga | 2 | 1.19 | 80.1% |
| ATP SHANGHAI | Zhou Yi – Musetti Lorenzo | 2 | 1.19 | 80.1% |
| Jordan - PRO LEAGUE | Al Hussein Irbid – Al Arabi Irbid | 1 | 1.20 | 75.4% |
| Alzir - LIGUE 1 | MC Alger – CR Temouchent | 1 | 1.20 | 76.1% |
| EUROLIGA | Olympiacos Piraeus – Anadolu Efes | 1 | 1.24 | 76.5% |
| Ukrajina - PREMIER LEAGUE | Veres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1.25 | 72.5% |
| Ceska - 1. LIGA | FC Zlin – Slavia Prag | 2 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| Turska - SUPER LIGA | Galatasaray SK – Kasimpasa | 1 | 1.25 | 74.7% |
| Nizozemska - EREDIVISIE | PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen | 1 | 1.25 | 74.5% |
| ATP SHANGHAI | Arnaldi Matteo – Fritz Taylor | 2 | 1.25 | 75.7% |
| Iran - PRO LIGA | Persepolis FC – Sanat Naft Abadan | 1 | 1.27 | 71.6% |